Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Athletic Club (MG)
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 56.71%1.76fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.12%56.80%56.76%59.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.651.651.7365.79%60.61%60.61%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Prediction 16.77%5.96fair odd
EV +7.00%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.091%
assuming max odds 6.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.60%16.67%16.72%19.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.305.256.3822.22%18.88%19.05%15.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.52%3.77fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.86%26.53%26.53%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.453.6232.26%29.05%28.99%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 56.71%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 16.77%; Draw: 26.52%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.96. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.48%EV -7.00%E -4.27%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 6.38I 15.67%NM 15.03%EV +7.00%E +1.10%K +1.30%G +0.091% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.49%EV -3.99%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-19 22:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.54%EV -13.81%E -9.08%K -26.55%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.60%EV +3.98%E +0.642%K +0.766%G +0.031% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-19 22:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.94%EV -9.84%E -6.19%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV +0.629%E +0.105%K +0.126%G +0.001% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 22:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.29%EV -7.57%E -4.64%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.94I 16.84%NM 15.72%EV -0.377%E -0.063%K -0.076%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 26.99%EV -8.23%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.77%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -1.05%E -0.178%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -5.85%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.77%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -1.05%E -0.178%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -5.85%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.77%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -1.05%E -0.178%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -5.85%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.30%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -3.56%E -0.620%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-19 22:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.90%EV -8.70%E -5.41%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -3.56%E -0.620%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-19 22:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.86%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -6.08%E -1.09%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -5.30%E -3.17%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.76%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -7.76%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.69%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -7.76%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.62%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-19 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.69%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -7.76%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.62%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-19 22:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -7.76%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -7.76%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -7.76%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.56%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -7.76%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -5.30%E -3.17%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.43%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.57%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -11.95%E -2.28%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.42%EV -11.95%E -2.28%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-19 22:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.02%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.29%EV -11.95%E -2.28%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.65%EV -7.57%E -4.64%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -11.95%E -2.28%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -11.15%E -3.33%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-19 22:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -1.90%E -1.10%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -1.90%E -1.10%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -1.90%E -1.10%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -1.90%E -1.10%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -1.90%E -1.10%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -1.90%E -1.10%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -1.90%E -1.10%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -3.03%E -1.77%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.85%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.36%EV -5.87%E -3.53%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-19 22:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.69%EV -8.70%E -5.41%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.69%EV -8.70%E -5.41%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -16.14%E -3.23%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-19 22:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -3.60%E -2.12%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -17.82%E -3.64%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.44%EV -4.73%E -2.82%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.66%EV -17.82%E -3.64%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.59%EV -5.30%E -3.17%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -17.82%E -3.64%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.83%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.46%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -19.50%E -4.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -11.15%E -3.33%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-19 22:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.46%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -19.50%E -4.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -11.15%E -3.33%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-19 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.46%EV -6.43%E -3.90%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -19.50%E -4.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -11.15%E -3.33%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-19 22:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.12%EV -8.14%E -5.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -24.53%E -5.45%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.76%EV -17.78%E -5.74%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-19 22:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.06% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.27% | 0.2% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.06% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.27% | 0.2% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.06% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.27% | 0.2% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.06% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.27% | 0.2% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.46% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.35% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.19% | 1.8% | 2026-04-19 22:55 |