Language:English
Goiás v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Goiás (Local)
Prediction 43.14%2.32fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.76%43.04%43.08%44.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.142.2550.00%47.06%46.73%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 26.08%3.83fair odd
EV +1.71%
Edge +0.438%
Kelly +0.589%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%26.23%26.09%28.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.543.553.9031.25%28.27%28.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.78%3.25fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.865%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.94%30.73%30.83%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.993.003.1636.36%33.47%33.33%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goiás (Local): 43.14%; Vila Nova (Visit): 26.08%; Draw: 30.78%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.92%EV -7.68%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.65%EV +1.71%E +0.438%K +0.589%G +0.010% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.42%EV -2.73%E -0.865%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -0.899%E -0.237%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -0.899%E -0.237%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.20%E -0.587%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -3.04%E -0.965%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.11%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 24.90%EV -2.99%E -0.803%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 30.98%EV -7.97%E -2.66%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.07%EV -5.52%E -2.52%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.51%E -0.948%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.07%EV -5.52%E -2.52%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.51%E -0.948%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.07%EV -5.52%E -2.52%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.51%E -0.948%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.74%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -3.51%E -0.948%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.35%E -3.94%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -6.39%E -2.94%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -7.42%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 18:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.42%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.00%EV -8.27%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.42%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.00%EV -8.27%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -8.54%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -11.35%E -3.94%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -11.35%E -3.94%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.48%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.06%EV -11.66%E -4.06%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.48%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.06%EV -11.66%E -4.06%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -5.95%E -2.73%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-09 18:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.47%EV -8.54%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.28%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.28%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.28%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -15.35%E -5.58%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.94%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -2.93%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -15.24%E -4.69%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 18:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.93%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -16.55%E -5.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 18:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -5.09%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -16.55%E -5.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-09 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.74% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.28% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |