La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Goiás v Vila Nova
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Goiás (Local)
Predicción 43.14%2.32momio equitativo
EV -2.93%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -2.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.76%43.04%43.08%44.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.132.142.2550.00%47.06%46.73%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Vila Nova (Visitante)
Predicción 26.08%3.83momio equitativo
EV +1.71%
Ventaja +0.438%
Kelly +0.589%
Crecimiento +0.010%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.19%26.23%26.09%28.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.543.553.9031.25%28.27%28.17%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 30.78%3.25momio equitativo
EV -2.73%
Ventaja -0.865%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.16
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.94%30.73%30.83%31.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.993.003.1636.36%33.47%33.33%31.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.92%EV -7.68%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.65%EV +1.71%E +0.438%K +0.589%G +0.010% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.42%EV -2.73%E -0.865%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| SportsBet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -0.899%E -0.237%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| FanDuel | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -0.899%E -0.237%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| DraftKings | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.20%E -0.587%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -3.04%E -0.965%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.11%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 24.90%EV -2.99%E -0.803%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 30.98%EV -7.97%E -2.66%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.07%EV -5.52%E -2.52%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.51%E -0.948%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.07%EV -5.52%E -2.52%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.51%E -0.948%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetUS | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.07%EV -5.52%E -2.52%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.51%E -0.948%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.74%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -3.51%E -0.948%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.35%E -3.94%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Casumo | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Unibet | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| betPARX | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -6.82%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| 888sport | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| William Hill | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetRivers | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -6.39%E -2.94%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -7.42%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 18:29 |
| Betsson | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.42%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.00%EV -8.27%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| NordicBet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.42%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.00%EV -8.27%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betway | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Grosvenor | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -8.54%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetMGM | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Neds | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -11.35%E -3.94%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -11.35%E -3.94%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.48%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.06%EV -11.66%E -4.06%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Coral | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.48%EV -11.56%E -5.64%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.06%EV -11.66%E -4.06%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -5.95%E -2.73%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 18:34 |
| TABtouch | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-09 18:25 |
| PlayUp | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.47%EV -8.54%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.28%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.28%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| LeoVegas | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.28%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -15.35%E -5.58%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| betfred_uk | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.94%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Coolbet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -2.93%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -15.24%E -4.69%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 18:44 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -2.93%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -16.55%E -5.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 18:45 |
| theScore Bet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -5.09%E -2.31%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -16.55%E -5.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-09 18:45 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.74% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Smarkets | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.28% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |