Language:English
Cuiabá v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cuiabá (Local)
Prediction 36.21%2.76fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.670%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.49%36.19%36.18%37.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.522.502.7342.02%39.65%40.00%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 30.47%3.28fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.21%30.43%30.47%31.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.033.003.1736.36%32.96%33.33%31.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 33.32%3.00fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.32%33.38%33.34%34.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.752.9038.46%36.14%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cuiabá (Local): 36.21%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 30.47%; Draw: 33.32%. For Cuiabá (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.73, with an expected value of -1.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.30%EV -1.16%E -0.425%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.40%EV -3.39%E -1.07%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.30%EV -6.37%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-16 23:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.49%EV -1.52%E -0.559%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.24%EV -8.70%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 23:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.49%EV -1.52%E -0.559%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.24%EV -8.70%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 23:01 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.49%EV -1.52%E -0.559%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.24%EV -8.70%E -3.18%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 23:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.04%E -3.72%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-16 23:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -4.78%E -1.82%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.45%EV -6.75%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.13%EV -9.04%E -3.31%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -5.14%E -1.96%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -10.04%E -3.72%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 23:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -5.14%E -1.96%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -10.04%E -3.72%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 35.53%EV -5.50%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.50%EV -7.36%E -2.42%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 33.97%EV -9.04%E -3.31%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 23:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.31%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -6.70%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-16 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.53%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.70%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 22:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -12.70%E -4.85%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-16 23:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.62%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.09%EV -11.70%E -4.42%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.87%EV -6.59%E -2.55%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.37%E -2.65%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.87%EV -6.59%E -2.55%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.37%E -2.65%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -7.68%E -3.01%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.44%EV -7.05%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.16%EV -6.70%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -7.68%E -3.01%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -3.37%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -3.37%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -3.37%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -3.37%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -3.37%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -3.37%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -3.37%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.53%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -5.04%E -1.77%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 23:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.70%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -5.53%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -12.70%E -4.85%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -5.53%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -12.70%E -4.85%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 22:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -5.53%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -12.70%E -4.85%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 22:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -5.53%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -12.70%E -4.85%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 22:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -11.62%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-16 23:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -9.49%E -3.79%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -16.19%E -5.89%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -13.37%E -5.14%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-16 23:18 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -10.21%E -4.12%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -4.00%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -4.04%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -11.30%E -4.61%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.53%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -5.04%E -1.77%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.30%E -4.61%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.70%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -11.30%E -4.61%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -10.10%E -3.42%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -6.70%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -12.02%E -4.95%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -7.05%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.70%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -12.02%E -4.95%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -7.05%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.70%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -13.11%E -5.46%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 23:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -13.11%E -5.46%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -11.62%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-16 22:56 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -13.11%E -5.46%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -11.62%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -13.11%E -5.46%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -11.62%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-16 22:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -13.11%E -5.46%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -11.62%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-16 22:56 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -13.83%E -5.81%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -13.83%E -5.81%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -13.83%E -5.81%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-16 23:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78% | 0.5% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.37% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.62% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.37% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.62% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.37% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.62% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.44% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.86% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.70% | 1.5% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |