Language:English
Criciuma v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Criciuma (Local)
Prediction 53.26%1.88fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -6.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.65%53.34%53.22%54.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.731.7860.61%57.97%57.97%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 18.45%5.42fair odd
EV +4.03%
Edge +0.715%
Kelly +0.869%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 5.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.75%18.41%18.43%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.015.005.6422.22%19.98%20.00%17.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.29%3.53fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.691%
Kelly -0.973%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%28.26%28.34%29.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.203.4533.33%31.09%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Criciuma (Local): 53.26%; Vila Nova (Visit): 18.45%; Draw: 28.29%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.42. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.47%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.64I 17.73%NM 17.00%EV +4.03%E +0.715%K +0.869%G +0.035% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.53%EV -4.93%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.69%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV +3.30%E +0.588%K +0.716%G +0.024% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.69%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV +3.30%E +0.588%K +0.716%G +0.024% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| BetUS | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.84%EV -8.93%E -5.22%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV +3.30%E +0.588%K +0.716%G +0.024% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.42I 18.45%NM 17.22%EV -0.025%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -5.21%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-18 18:45 |
| Unibet | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Casumo | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| betPARX | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| DraftKings | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.60%EV -5.73%E -3.24%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -3.16%E -0.602%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -5.21%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:49 |
| Bovada | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -4.08%E -0.785%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-18 18:53 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.00%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.01%EV -5.01%E -0.972%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Betsson | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.92%EV -5.01%E -0.972%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| NordicBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.92%EV -5.01%E -0.972%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Betway | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.00%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.34%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| 888sport | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| William Hill | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -12.12%E -7.35%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.56%EV -8.93%E -5.22%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -13.70%E -4.49%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.28%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.52%EV -8.69%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| BetRivers | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.57%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.56%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.87%E -3.45%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-18 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.51%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.22%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -13.70%E -4.49%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.55%EV -10.52%E -6.26%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.02%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.70%EV -11.06%E -6.62%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.96%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.70%EV -11.06%E -6.62%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.96%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| SportsBet | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.38%E -0.691%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.35%EV -7.33%E -4.21%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -3.80%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| BetMGM | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.12%EV -8.93%E -5.22%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.93%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Bet Victor | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.71%EV -11.06%E -6.62%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-18 18:54 |
| betano_uk | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.71%EV -11.06%E -6.62%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-18 18:54 |
| Coolbet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -5.20%E -2.92%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -12.38%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -3.80%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.58%EV -7.33%E -4.21%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -12.38%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -12.38%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| PlayUp | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.65%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -10.87%E -3.45%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| betfred_uk | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.62%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-18 18:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Neds | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Coral | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Paddy Power | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -16.99%E -3.78%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.90% | 0.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.57% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73% | 0.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |