La escuela de los momiosCriciuma v Vila Nova
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Criciuma (Local)
Predicción 53.26%1.88momio equitativo
EV -5.20%
Ventaja -2.92%
Kelly -6.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.65%53.34%53.22%54.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.651.731.731.7860.61%57.97%57.97%56.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Vila Nova (Visitante)
Predicción 18.45%5.42momio equitativo
EV +4.03%
Ventaja +0.715%
Kelly +0.869%
Crecimiento +0.035%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.64
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.75%18.41%18.43%19.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.015.005.6422.22%19.98%20.00%17.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.29%3.53momio equitativo
EV -2.38%
Ventaja -0.691%
Kelly -0.973%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.18%28.26%28.34%29.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.223.203.4533.33%31.09%31.25%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.47%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.64I 17.73%NM 17.00%EV +4.03%E +0.715%K +0.869%G +0.035% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.53%EV -4.93%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.69%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV +3.30%E +0.588%K +0.716%G +0.024% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.69%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV +3.30%E +0.588%K +0.716%G +0.024% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| BetUS | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.84%EV -8.93%E -5.22%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV +3.30%E +0.588%K +0.716%G +0.024% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.42I 18.45%NM 17.22%EV -0.025%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -5.21%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-18 18:45 |
| Unibet | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Casumo | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| betPARX | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.24%E -0.422%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| DraftKings | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.60%EV -5.73%E -3.24%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -3.16%E -0.602%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -5.21%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:49 |
| Bovada | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -4.08%E -0.785%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-18 18:53 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.00%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.01%EV -5.01%E -0.972%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Betsson | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.92%EV -5.01%E -0.972%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| NordicBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.92%EV -5.01%E -0.972%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Betway | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.00%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.34%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| 888sport | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| William Hill | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -12.12%E -7.35%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.56%EV -8.93%E -5.22%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -7.77%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -13.70%E -4.49%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.28%EV -8.39%E -4.88%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.52%EV -8.69%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| BetRivers | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.57%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.56%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.87%E -3.45%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-18 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.51%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.22%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -13.70%E -4.49%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.55%EV -10.52%E -6.26%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.02%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.70%EV -11.06%E -6.62%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.96%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.70%EV -11.06%E -6.62%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.96%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| SportsBet | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -2.38%E -0.691%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.35%EV -7.33%E -4.21%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -3.80%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| BetMGM | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.12%EV -8.93%E -5.22%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.93%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Bet Victor | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.71%EV -11.06%E -6.62%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-18 18:54 |
| betano_uk | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.71%EV -11.06%E -6.62%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -11.46%E -2.39%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-18 18:54 |
| Coolbet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -5.20%E -2.92%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -12.38%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -3.80%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.58%EV -7.33%E -4.21%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -12.38%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.04%E -2.47%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -12.38%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| PlayUp | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.65%EV -6.80%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -10.87%E -3.45%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| betfred_uk | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.62%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-18 18:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Neds | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Coral | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -15.15%E -3.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Paddy Power | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -9.46%E -5.56%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -16.99%E -3.78%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.90% | 0.3% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.57% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73% | 0.9% | 2026-07-18 18:55 |