The School of Odds

Criciuma v Nautico PE

2026-07-26 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Criciuma (Local)

Prediction 48.23%2.07fair odd
EV -7.39%
Edge -3.85%
Kelly -8.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.18%48.23%48.23%48.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.821.881.921.9255%53%52%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Nautico PE (Visit)

Prediction 23.86%4.19fair odd
EV -5.74%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%23.86%23.86%23.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.703.853.953.9527%26%25%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.90%3.58fair odd
EV -6.53%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.83%27.90%27.90%27.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.273.353.3532%31%30%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -7.39%E -3.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.74%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:15
Unibet (NL)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -7.39%E -3.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.74%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:14
Unibet (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -7.39%E -3.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.74%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:15
Casumo1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -7.39%E -3.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.74%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:15
betPARX1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -7.39%E -3.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.74%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:20
ATG (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -7.39%E -3.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.74%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:15
Svenska Spel1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -7.39%E -3.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.74%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.53%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:15
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 48.23%EV -9.32%E -4.96%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -9.32%E -2.45%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -9.32%E -2.87%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-19 20:15
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.77%E -5.82%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.51%E -2.80%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -10.71%E -3.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-19 20:14
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.77%E -5.82%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.51%E -2.80%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -10.71%E -3.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-19 20:14
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 48.18%EV -11.73%E -6.41%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.83%EV -11.71%E -3.16%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.99%EV -12.11%E -3.84%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-19 20:15
Virgin Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 48.32%EV -12.21%E -6.71%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -11.71%E -3.16%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -12.11%E -3.84%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-19 20:14
LiveScore Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 48.32%EV -12.21%E -6.71%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -11.71%E -3.16%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -12.11%E -3.84%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-19 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.