Language:English
Ceará v São Bernardo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ceará (Local)
Prediction 60.46%1.65fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -3.23%
Kelly -8.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.51%60.60%60.35%62.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.531.5769.44%65.49%65.36%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
São Bernardo (Visit)
Prediction 15.16%6.60fair odd
EV +9.30%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.139%
assuming max odds 7.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.32%15.11%15.31%16.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.056.007.2118.18%16.54%16.67%13.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.38%4.10fair odd
EV -4.92%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.16%24.29%24.35%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.763.803.9029.41%26.57%26.32%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 60.46%; São Bernardo (Visit): 15.16%; Draw: 24.38%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.94%EV -6.29%E -4.06%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 7.21I 13.87%NM 13.32%EV +9.30%E +1.29%K +1.50%G +0.139% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.74%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 20:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.98%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -1.46%E -0.225%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -4.92%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 20:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.89%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -1.46%E -0.225%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 20:48 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.05%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.46%E -0.225%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.58%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 20:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.80%EV -8.10%E -5.33%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -1.46%E -0.225%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 20:48 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.45%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.68%EV -4.49%E -0.713%K -0.848%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 24.86%EV -9.31%E -2.50%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 20:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.89%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -5.25%E -0.840%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 20:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.07%EV -6.29%E -4.06%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.90%EV -5.25%E -0.840%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.03%EV -9.31%E -2.50%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.28%EV -12.33%E -8.51%K -27.41%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.57%EV -6.01%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.16%EV -4.92%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -7.52%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -7.52%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -7.52%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -7.52%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -7.52%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -7.52%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -5.68%E -3.64%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -7.52%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.36%EV -6.29%E -4.06%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.34%EV -7.52%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -6.14%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -4.92%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 20:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 20:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.58%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 20:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.58%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 20:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.45%EV -8.70%E -5.76%K -17.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-21 20:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-21 20:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.50%E -4.90%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-21 20:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.41%EV -9.31%E -6.21%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 20:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -9.31%E -6.21%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -9.04%E -1.51%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-21 20:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.86%EV -6.29%E -4.06%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 20:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.86%EV -6.29%E -4.06%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 20:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.34%EV -10.52%E -7.11%K -21.91%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.39%EV -10.56%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -4.92%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 18:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.34%EV -10.52%E -7.11%K -21.91%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.39%EV -10.56%E -1.79%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -4.92%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 18:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.59%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -12.07%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 20:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.66%EV -6.89%E -4.47%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.84%EV -12.07%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -8.58%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 20:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.26%EV -9.91%E -6.65%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -12.07%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-21 20:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.26%EV -9.91%E -6.65%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -12.07%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-21 20:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.26%EV -9.91%E -6.65%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -12.07%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-21 20:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.61%EV -6.29%E -4.06%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -12.83%E -2.23%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 20:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -5.08%E -3.23%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -12.83%E -2.23%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-21 20:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.29%EV -8.10%E -5.33%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.67%EV -12.83%E -2.23%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-21 20:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.76%EV -12.94%E -8.98%K -29.40%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.91%EV -16.62%E -3.02%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.33%EV -8.58%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-21 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.33%EV -12.94%E -8.98%K -29.40%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.53%EV -16.62%E -3.02%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -17.11%E -5.03%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-03-21 20:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.31% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.31% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.31% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.94% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.59% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.47% | 2.2% | 2026-03-21 20:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.09% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.54% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37% | 2.6% | 2026-03-21 20:45 |