Language:English
Botafogo v São Bernardo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Botafogo (Local)
Prediction 46.60%2.15fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.39%46.59%46.70%50.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.012.022.1055.56%49.63%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
São Bernardo (Visit)
Prediction 23.02%4.34fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.548%
Kelly +0.707%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 4.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.56%23.09%22.93%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.953.854.4527.78%25.29%25.97%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.38%3.29fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.18%30.33%30.37%31.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.053.103.1534.48%32.75%32.26%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 46.60%; São Bernardo (Visit): 23.02%; Draw: 30.38%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.44%EV -10.06%E -5.21%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.01%EV +2.44%E +0.548%K +0.707%G +0.017% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.55%EV -7.04%E -2.30%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.35%EV -5.40%E -2.66%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.65%EV +2.21%E +0.497%K +0.642%G +0.014% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.00%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.26%EV -16.12%E -8.96%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV +1.29%E +0.293%K +0.379%G +0.005% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.74%EV -11.46%E -6.03%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -0.324%E -0.075%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.41%EV -3.07%E -1.48%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.45%EV -1.01%E -0.236%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.14%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-05 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.12%EV -4.94%E -2.42%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.36%EV -1.01%E -0.236%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.52%EV -4.30%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.54%EV -10.99%E -5.76%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -1.01%E -0.236%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.41%EV -4.47%E -2.18%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.39%EV -2.17%E -0.509%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.20%EV -7.34%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-05 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -6.80%E -3.40%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -3.32%E -0.790%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 23:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.60%EV -7.27%E -3.65%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -3.32%E -0.790%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.33%EV -10.08%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-05 23:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -12.86%E -6.88%K -14.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -3.32%E -0.790%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-05 23:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -7.73%E -3.90%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.21%EV -4.47%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -10.38%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 23:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -7.73%E -3.90%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.87%EV -6.77%E -1.67%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.34%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -7.73%E -3.90%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.87%EV -6.77%E -1.67%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.34%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-05 23:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.64%EV -7.73%E -3.90%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -7.92%E -1.98%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -7.34%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.53%EV -8.20%E -4.16%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.92%E -1.98%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -9.13%E -4.68%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.22%E -2.62%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -9.13%E -4.68%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.22%E -2.62%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -9.13%E -4.68%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.22%E -2.62%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -12.52%E -3.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -12.52%E -3.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -12.52%E -3.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -12.52%E -3.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -12.52%E -3.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -12.52%E -3.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -12.52%E -3.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -12.52%E -3.30%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -2.14%E -1.02%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -13.68%E -3.65%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-05 23:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -6.80%E -3.40%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -13.68%E -3.65%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-05 23:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.74%EV -5.87%E -2.90%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -13.68%E -3.65%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.90%E -4.10%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-05 22:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -4.47%E -2.18%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -14.83%E -4.01%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-05 23:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.80%EV -4.00%E -1.94%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -14.83%E -4.01%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -7.34%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.82%EV -4.94%E -2.42%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -14.83%E -4.01%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.47%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.66%EV -4.94%E -2.42%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -15.98%E -4.38%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.37%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.68%EV -5.87%E -2.90%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%EV -15.98%E -4.38%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -10.38%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.68%EV -5.87%E -2.90%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%EV -15.98%E -4.38%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -10.38%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.68%EV -5.87%E -2.90%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%EV -15.98%E -4.38%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -10.38%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -4.47%E -2.18%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -17.13%E -4.76%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-05 23:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.26% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13% | 0.6% | 2026-04-05 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.50% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.50% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.09% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.05% | 4.0% | 2026-04-05 23:25 |