Language:English
América Mineiro v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
América Mineiro (Local)
Prediction 83.80%1.19fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -4.70%
Kelly -40.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.46%83.68%84.00%84.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.101.111.1397.09%90.57%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 4.93%20.27fair odd
EV +13.45%
Edge +0.585%
Kelly +0.611%
Growth +0.082%
assuming max odds 23.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.06%5.02%4.91%6.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0018.4219.0023.007.69%5.43%5.26%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 11.27%8.87fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.159%
Kelly +0.179%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.36%11.31%11.09%14.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.508.088.009.0015.38%12.38%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América Mineiro (Local): 83.80%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 4.93%; Draw: 11.27%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.27. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 23.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.25%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV +13.45%E +0.585%K +0.611%G +0.082% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 18:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.47%EV -6.15%E -5.49%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +13.45%E +0.585%K +0.611%G +0.082% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -15.47%E -2.06%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.47%EV -6.15%E -5.49%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +13.45%E +0.585%K +0.611%G +0.082% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -15.47%E -2.06%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.47%EV -6.15%E -5.49%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +13.45%E +0.585%K +0.611%G +0.082% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -15.47%E -2.06%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.80%EV -8.66%E -7.95%K -96.24%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV +8.52%E +0.387%K +0.405%G +0.035% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.00%EV -5.33%E -0.634%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.75%EV -6.15%E -5.49%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 21.09I 4.74%NM 4.50%EV +4.03%E +0.191%K +0.200%G +0.008% | 8.83I 11.33%NM 10.75%EV -0.481%E -0.054%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -4.20%E -0.494%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -4.20%E -0.494%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -4.20%E -0.494%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -4.20%E -0.494%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -4.20%E -0.494%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 18:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -4.20%E -0.494%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -4.20%E -0.494%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 8.02I 12.47%NM 11.62%EV -9.61%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.46%EV -5.31%E -4.70%K -40.84%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +3.58%E +0.171%K +0.179%G +0.006% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -26.74%E -4.11%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV -1.35%E -0.067%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV +1.44%E +0.159%K +0.179%G +0.003% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 17:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.61%EV -6.15%E -5.49%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -1.35%E -0.067%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 18:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.62%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV -6.28%E -0.331%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.44%E +0.159%K +0.179%G +0.003% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.37%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -6.28%E -0.331%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.70%EV -1.38%E -0.158%K -0.178%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV -6.28%E -0.331%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -4.20%E -0.494%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 18:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.76%EV -6.15%E -5.49%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -6.28%E -0.331%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -15.47%E -2.06%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.89%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -6.28%E -0.331%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -15.47%E -2.06%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-30 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 84.53%EV -13.69%E -13.29%K -456.31%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.58%EV -6.28%E -0.331%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.88%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.50%E -8.80%K -118.74%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -11.21%E -0.623%K -0.660%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.50%E -8.80%K -118.74%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -11.21%E -0.623%K -0.660%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-30 18:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.05%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -16.15%E -0.950%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.05%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -16.15%E -0.950%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-30 18:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.55%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.39%EV -16.15%E -0.950%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.06%EV -14.34%E -1.89%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.18%EV -7.82%E -7.11%K -78.23%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -16.15%E -0.950%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-29 22:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.84%EV -7.82%E -7.11%K -78.23%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV -16.15%E -0.950%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -21.11%E -3.02%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-30 18:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.56%EV -10.34%E -9.66%K -147.68%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.26%EV -16.15%E -0.950%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-29 22:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.69%EV -11.18%E -10.54%K -186.25%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV -16.15%E -0.950%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.69%EV -11.18%E -10.54%K -186.25%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV -16.15%E -0.950%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.37%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.61%EV -18.61%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.02%EV -5.33%E -0.634%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.37%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.61%EV -18.61%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.02%EV -5.33%E -0.634%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.16%EV -9.50%E -8.80%K -118.74%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.61%EV -21.08%E -1.32%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -26.01%E -1.73%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.15%E -5.49%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -26.01%E -1.73%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -15.47%E -2.06%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.97%EV -7.82%E -7.11%K -78.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -26.01%E -1.73%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -15.47%E -2.06%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.22%EV -6.15%E -5.49%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.43%EV -28.48%E -1.96%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV +1.44%E +0.159%K +0.179%G +0.003% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 18:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -35.88%E -2.76%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -35.88%E -2.76%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -35.88%E -2.76%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -6.99%E -6.29%K -63.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -35.88%E -2.76%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-30 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.04% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.15% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.81% | 0.5% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.34% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.12% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.53% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.34% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.12% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.53% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.34% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.12% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.53% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.90% | 22.99I 4.35%NM 4.25% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.85% | 2.4% | 2026-08-30 18:55 |