Language:English
Botafogo v Grêmio
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Botafogo (Local)
Prediction 54.22%1.84fair odd
EV -0.242%
Edge -0.131%
Kelly -0.288%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.69%53.96%54.37%55.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.721.731.8464.10%58.16%57.80%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio (Visit)
Prediction 20.07%4.98fair odd
EV +5.38%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.068%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.95%20.27%19.79%22.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.554.505.2525.00%21.98%22.22%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.71%3.89fair odd
EV +0.273%
Edge +0.070%
Kelly +0.094%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.04%25.77%25.84%27.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.633.643.9030.30%27.54%27.47%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 54.22%; Grêmio (Visit): 20.07%; Draw: 25.71%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.98. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.38%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.29%E -4.26%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV +5.38%E +1.02%K +1.27%G +0.068% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-23 16:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.66%E -3.25%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.49%EV +4.18%E +0.805%K +0.997%G +0.042% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.36%EV -6.41%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-23 20:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.19%EV -8.37%E -4.96%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV +1.37%E +0.271%K +0.337%G +0.005% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -8.98%E -2.54%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-23 20:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.12%EV -4.58%E -2.60%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV +0.363%E +0.073%K +0.091%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -8.73%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-25 07:48 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -5.66%E -3.25%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV +0.363%E +0.073%K +0.091%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 01:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.64%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.10%EV -0.641%E -0.130%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-23 15:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -3.65%E -0.761%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-24 02:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.75%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -3.65%E -0.761%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-23 17:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.75%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -3.65%E -0.761%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-23 17:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -4.66%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-24 18:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.35%EV -2.95%E -1.65%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%EV -5.66%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.273%E +0.070%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.35%EV -2.95%E -1.65%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%EV -5.66%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.273%E +0.070%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -6.75%E -3.92%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -5.66%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -8.73%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-27 08:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -6.75%E -3.92%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -5.66%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -8.73%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-27 08:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.41%EV -4.04%E -2.28%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.33%EV -6.66%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 13:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.67%E -1.67%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-27 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -6.75%E -3.92%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -7.29%E -4.26%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -9.46%E -5.66%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.49%EV -12.71%E -7.90%K -20.84%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.71%EV -10.68%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-25 06:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.76%EV -13.25%E -8.28%K -22.09%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.69%EV -10.68%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 25.55%EV -11.81%E -3.44%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-23 14:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.46%E -5.66%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -11.68%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -6.16%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.46%E -5.66%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -11.68%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -6.16%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.46%E -5.66%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -11.68%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -6.16%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.44%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -13.69%E -3.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -1.01%E -0.263%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-22 16:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-26 21:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-26 21:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-26 21:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-26 21:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.21%EV -13.25%E -8.28%K -22.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.65%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.14%EV -11.30%E -3.27%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-07-23 14:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.72%EV -0.242%E -0.131%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.77%EV -16.10%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.51%EV -4.10%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 00:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.72%EV -0.242%E -0.131%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.77%EV -16.10%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.51%EV -4.10%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 00:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.69%EV -0.242%E -0.131%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.81%EV -16.30%E -3.91%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.50%EV -4.10%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 00:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 53.68%EV -15.42%E -9.89%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 20.94%EV -19.71%E -4.93%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.38%EV -15.15%E -4.59%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 19.4% | 2026-07-23 14:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.