The School of Odds

Botafogo v Grêmio

2026-07-29 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 53.68%1.86fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.55%53.68%53.48%54.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.711.731.7963%59%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 21.40%4.67fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.436%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.83%21.40%21.52%22.72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.704.334.384.6027%23%23%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.92%4.01fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.718%
Kelly -0.966%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.54%24.92%25.01%25.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.713.733.9029%27%27%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel1.79I 55.87%NM 54.11%EV -3.91%E -2.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%EV -1.57%E -0.341%K -0.436%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83%EV -2.80%E -0.718%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-19 17:09
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 54.11%EV -3.91%E -2.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%EV -1.57%E -0.341%K -0.436%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83%EV -2.80%E -0.718%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-19 17:10
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -6.06%E -3.46%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.06%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-19 17:55
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -6.06%E -3.46%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.06%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-19 17:55
Unibet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -7.14%E -4.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.71%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 17:10
Grosvenor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -7.14%E -4.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.71%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 17:10
Unibet (NL)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -7.14%E -4.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.71%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 17:10
Unibet (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -7.14%E -4.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.71%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 17:10
Casumo1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -7.14%E -4.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.71%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 17:10
betPARX1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -7.14%E -4.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.71%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 17:10
Codere (IT)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.48%EV -7.14%E -4.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-19 17:54
BetRivers1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -7.67%E -4.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -3.71%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 17:09
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -7.67%E -4.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-19 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -5.85%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-19 17:10
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 53.91%EV -8.75%E -5.14%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -7.99%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-19 17:55
PMU (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.34%EV -9.82%E -5.84%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-19 17:09
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.34%EV -9.82%E -5.84%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-19 17:09
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.34%EV -9.82%E -5.84%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -6.92%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-19 17:10
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.12%EV -11.97%E -7.30%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -16.55%E -4.24%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.54%EV -11.52%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-19 17:55
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.21%EV -13.04%E -8.05%K -21.03%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 21.66%EV -14.84%E -3.73%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.13%EV -14.51%E -4.23%K -5.97%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-19 17:54
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.15%EV -13.04%E -8.05%K -21.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -14.41%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.32%EV -15.26%E -4.49%K -6.36%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-19 17:55
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 52.55%EV -14.11%E -8.82%K -23.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.72%EV -20.83%E -5.63%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.73%EV -15.26%E -4.49%K -6.36%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-19 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.