Idioma:Español
Botafogo v Grêmio
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Botafogo (Local)
Predicción 54.22%1.84momio equitativo
EV -0.242%
Ventaja -0.131%
Kelly -0.288%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.84
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.69%53.96%54.37%55.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.721.731.8464.10%58.16%57.80%54.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Grêmio (Visitante)
Predicción 20.07%4.98momio equitativo
EV +5.38%
Ventaja +1.02%
Kelly +1.27%
Crecimiento +0.068%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.95%20.27%19.79%22.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.554.505.2525.00%21.98%22.22%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 25.71%3.89momio equitativo
EV +0.273%
Ventaja +0.070%
Kelly +0.094%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.04%25.77%25.84%27.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.633.643.9030.30%27.54%27.47%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Botafogo (Local): 54.22%; Grêmio (Visitante): 20.07%; Empate: 25.71%. Para Grêmio (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.98. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.38%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.29%E -4.26%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV +5.38%E +1.02%K +1.27%G +0.068% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-23 16:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.66%E -3.25%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.49%EV +4.18%E +0.805%K +0.997%G +0.042% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.36%EV -6.41%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-23 20:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.19%EV -8.37%E -4.96%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV +1.37%E +0.271%K +0.337%G +0.005% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -8.98%E -2.54%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-23 20:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.12%EV -4.58%E -2.60%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV +0.363%E +0.073%K +0.091%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -8.73%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-25 07:48 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -5.66%E -3.25%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV +0.363%E +0.073%K +0.091%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 01:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.64%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.10%EV -0.641%E -0.130%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-23 15:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -3.65%E -0.761%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-24 02:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.75%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -3.65%E -0.761%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-23 17:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.75%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -3.65%E -0.761%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-23 17:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -4.66%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-24 18:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.35%EV -2.95%E -1.65%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%EV -5.66%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.273%E +0.070%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.35%EV -2.95%E -1.65%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70%EV -5.66%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.273%E +0.070%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -6.75%E -3.92%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -5.66%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -8.73%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-27 08:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -6.75%E -3.92%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -5.66%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -8.73%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-27 08:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.41%EV -4.04%E -2.28%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.33%EV -6.66%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -7.44%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 13:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.67%E -1.67%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-27 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.21%E -3.59%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.30%E -0.605%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -6.75%E -3.92%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -7.29%E -4.26%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -3.58%E -0.956%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -4.87%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -9.46%E -5.66%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -9.67%E -2.15%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.49%EV -12.71%E -7.90%K -20.84%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.71%EV -10.68%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-25 06:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.76%EV -13.25%E -8.28%K -22.09%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.69%EV -10.68%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 25.55%EV -11.81%E -3.44%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-23 14:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.46%E -5.66%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -11.68%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -6.16%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.46%E -5.66%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -11.68%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -6.16%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -9.46%E -5.66%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -11.68%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -6.16%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 15:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.44%EV -7.83%E -4.61%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -13.69%E -3.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -1.01%E -0.263%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-22 16:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-26 21:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-26 21:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-26 21:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -5.12%E -2.93%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-26 21:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.21%EV -13.25%E -8.28%K -22.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.65%EV -15.70%E -3.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.14%EV -11.30%E -3.27%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-07-23 14:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.72%EV -0.242%E -0.131%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.77%EV -16.10%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.51%EV -4.10%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 00:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.72%EV -0.242%E -0.131%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.77%EV -16.10%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.51%EV -4.10%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 00:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.69%EV -0.242%E -0.131%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.81%EV -16.30%E -3.91%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.50%EV -4.10%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 00:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 53.68%EV -15.42%E -9.89%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 20.94%EV -19.71%E -4.93%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.38%EV -15.15%E -4.59%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 19.4% | 2026-07-23 14:49 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.