Language:English
Atletico Paranaense v Botafogo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atletico Paranaense (Local)
Prediction 44.87%2.23fair odd
EV +8.59%
Edge +3.55%
Kelly +6.05%
Growth +0.520%
assuming max odds 2.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.26%44.46%45.19%48.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.862.032.022.4253.76%49.20%49.50%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo (Visit)
Prediction 26.94%3.71fair odd
EV +7.76%
Edge +1.94%
Kelly +2.59%
Growth +0.201%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.76%27.11%26.74%31.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.503.504.0035.71%28.59%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.19%3.55fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.386%
Kelly -0.540%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%28.43%28.07%30.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.233.303.5035.71%30.94%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 44.87%; Botafogo (Visit): 26.94%; Draw: 28.19%. For Atletico Paranaense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.26%EV +8.59%E +3.55%K +6.05%G +0.520% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -20.53%E -6.96%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -14.03%E -4.60%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-24 12:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV +3.21%E +1.40%K +2.47%G +0.079% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -13.79%E -4.31%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-02 14:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -2.62%E -1.21%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 03:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 03:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 01:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 01:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.59%EV -3.97%E -1.86%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -9.24%E -2.87%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-09 13:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.07%EV -4.42%E -2.07%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.52%EV -2.48%E -0.684%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.40%EV -4.73%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.77%E -2.75%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-04 03:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.25%EV -5.77%E -2.75%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -21.87%E -7.54%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-03-03 01:25 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.05%EV -5.77%E -2.75%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -20.53%E -6.96%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.73%EV -18.26%E -6.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-03-03 01:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.05%EV -5.77%E -2.75%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -20.53%E -6.96%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.73%EV -18.26%E -6.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-03-03 01:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.63%EV -6.21%E -2.97%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -3.01%E -0.837%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.88%EV -3.61%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 02:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-06 22:03 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -16.48%E -5.32%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 40.79%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.87%EV -24.57%E -8.77%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.34%EV -19.67%E -6.90%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 19.6% | 2026-03-03 01:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 41.03%EV -8.91%E -4.39%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.22%EV -23.22%E -8.15%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.75%EV -21.08%E -7.53%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 20.1% | 2026-03-03 01:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -9.35%E -4.63%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.320%E -0.086%K -0.118%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-04 07:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -9.35%E -4.63%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.320%E -0.086%K -0.118%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-04 07:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV +7.76%E +1.94%K +2.59%G +0.201% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV -1.35%E -0.386%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-04 01:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV +7.76%E +1.94%K +2.59%G +0.201% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV -1.35%E -0.386%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -0.320%E -0.086%K -0.118%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 09:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -1.67%E -0.457%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -9.81%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-06 22:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -16.48%E -5.32%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -18.83%E -6.54%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.50%EV -12.94%E -6.67%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 01:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +5.07%E +1.30%K +1.75%G +0.089% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -5.58%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.40%EV -14.29%E -7.48%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV +3.72%E +0.967%K +1.31%G +0.049% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -5.58%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.84%EV -14.29%E -7.48%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -4.36%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.81%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-03-06 22:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 44.12%EV -14.74%E -7.76%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.94%EV -19.18%E -6.39%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.94%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-03-04 03:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.46%EV -15.19%E -8.04%K -17.07%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV +3.72%E +0.967%K +1.31%G +0.049% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.44%EV -15.64%E -8.32%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV +2.37%E +0.625%K +0.848%G +0.020% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-04 01:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.35%EV -16.53%E -8.89%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV +1.03%E +0.274%K +0.374%G +0.004% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.35%EV -16.53%E -8.89%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV +1.03%E +0.274%K +0.374%G +0.004% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.31% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.77% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.77% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 40.46% | 139.9% | 2026-03-09 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.77% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.77% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 40.46% | 139.9% | 2026-03-09 16:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.65% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.65% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 40.70% | 140.9% | 2026-03-09 11:45 |