La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Atletico Paranaense v Botafogo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Atletico Paranaense (Local)
Predicción 44.87%2.23momio equitativo
EV +8.59%
Ventaja +3.55%
Kelly +6.05%
Crecimiento +0.520%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.42
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.26%44.46%45.19%48.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.862.032.022.4253.76%49.20%49.50%41.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Botafogo (Visitante)
Predicción 26.94%3.71momio equitativo
EV +7.76%
Ventaja +1.94%
Kelly +2.59%
Crecimiento +0.201%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.76%27.11%26.74%31.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.503.504.0035.71%28.59%28.57%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.19%3.55momio equitativo
EV -1.35%
Ventaja -0.386%
Kelly -0.540%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.59%28.43%28.07%30.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.233.303.5035.71%30.94%30.30%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT) | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.26%EV +8.59%E +3.55%K +6.05%G +0.520% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -20.53%E -6.96%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -14.03%E -4.60%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-24 12:09 |
| Fanatics | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV +3.21%E +1.40%K +2.47%G +0.079% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -13.79%E -4.31%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-02 14:24 |
| Coolbet | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -2.62%E -1.21%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 03:15 |
| SportsBet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 03:14 |
| 888sport | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| William Hill | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 01:39 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 01:39 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.59%EV -3.97%E -1.86%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -9.24%E -2.87%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-09 13:59 |
| 1xBet | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.07%EV -4.42%E -2.07%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.52%EV -2.48%E -0.684%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.40%EV -4.73%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| FanDuel | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.77%E -2.75%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-04 03:14 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.25%EV -5.77%E -2.75%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -21.87%E -7.54%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-03-03 01:25 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.05%EV -5.77%E -2.75%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -20.53%E -6.96%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.73%EV -18.26%E -6.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-03-03 01:25 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.05%EV -5.77%E -2.75%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -20.53%E -6.96%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.73%EV -18.26%E -6.30%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-03-03 01:30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.63%EV -6.21%E -2.97%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -3.01%E -0.837%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.88%EV -3.61%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 02:20 |
| Betway | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Paddy Power | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.10%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-06 22:03 |
| Sky Bet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -16.48%E -5.32%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 40.79%EV -8.01%E -3.91%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.87%EV -24.57%E -8.77%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.34%EV -19.67%E -6.90%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 19.6% | 2026-03-03 01:24 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.03I 49.26%NM 41.03%EV -8.91%E -4.39%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.22%EV -23.22%E -8.15%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.75%EV -21.08%E -7.53%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 20.1% | 2026-03-03 01:45 |
| Betsson | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -9.35%E -4.63%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.320%E -0.086%K -0.118%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-04 07:40 |
| NordicBet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -9.35%E -4.63%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.320%E -0.086%K -0.118%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-04 07:39 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV +7.76%E +1.94%K +2.59%G +0.201% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV -1.35%E -0.386%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-04 01:24 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV +7.76%E +1.94%K +2.59%G +0.201% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV -1.35%E -0.386%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Bet Victor | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -0.320%E -0.086%K -0.118%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 09:25 |
| PlayUp | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -1.67%E -0.457%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -9.81%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-06 22:10 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -5.71%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| BoyleSports | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.40%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -10.25%E -5.13%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -16.48%E -5.32%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -18.83%E -6.54%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-03-08 22:00 |
| Unibet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.50%EV -12.94%E -6.67%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 01:24 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Casumo | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:24 |
| Grosvenor | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| betPARX | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +6.42%E +1.62%K +2.17%G +0.140% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| BetRivers | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -13.39%E -6.94%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +5.07%E +1.30%K +1.75%G +0.089% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -5.58%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.40%EV -14.29%E -7.48%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV +3.72%E +0.967%K +1.31%G +0.049% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -5.58%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Fliff | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.84%EV -14.29%E -7.48%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -4.36%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.81%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-03-06 22:05 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 44.12%EV -14.74%E -7.76%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.94%EV -19.18%E -6.39%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.94%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-03-04 03:14 |
| LeoVegas | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.46%EV -15.19%E -8.04%K -17.07%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV +3.72%E +0.967%K +1.31%G +0.049% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| TABtouch | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.44%EV -15.64%E -8.32%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV +2.37%E +0.625%K +0.848%G +0.020% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-04 01:24 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.35%EV -16.53%E -8.89%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV +1.03%E +0.274%K +0.374%G +0.004% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.35%EV -16.53%E -8.89%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV +1.03%E +0.274%K +0.374%G +0.004% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -8.40%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.31% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.77% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.77% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 40.46% | 139.9% | 2026-03-09 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.77% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.77% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 40.46% | 139.9% | 2026-03-09 16:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.65% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 29.65% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 40.70% | 140.9% | 2026-03-09 11:45 |