Language:English
RB Salzburg v Sturm Graz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
RB Salzburg (Local)
Prediction 61.97%1.61fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.14%61.76%62.13%63.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.501.501.5870.42%66.77%66.67%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sturm Graz (Visit)
Prediction 18.00%5.56fair odd
EV +3.49%
Edge +0.608%
Kelly +0.736%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 5.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.51%18.07%18.03%20.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.014.905.7522.22%19.97%20.41%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.03%4.99fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -0.807%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.99%20.17%19.84%22.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.444.404.8024.39%22.52%22.73%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Salzburg (Local): 61.97%; Sturm Graz (Visit): 18.00%; Draw: 20.03%. For Sturm Graz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.56. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.99%EV -5.18%E -3.38%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.76%EV +3.49%E +0.608%K +0.736%G +0.026% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.25%EV -4.68%E -0.982%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-20 14:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.05%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV +0.795%E +0.142%K +0.173%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -7.88%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 14:43 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.05%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV +0.795%E +0.142%K +0.173%G +0.001% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -7.88%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 14:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -1.01%E -0.183%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -3.87%E -0.807%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 14:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -1.01%E -0.183%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -3.87%E -0.807%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 14:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -1.01%E -0.183%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.87%E -0.807%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 14:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.35%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -1.01%E -0.183%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -17.89%E -4.36%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 14:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.93%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -2.81%E -0.519%K -0.638%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.82%EV -5.88%E -1.25%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-20 14:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.32%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -2.81%E -0.519%K -0.638%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.87%EV -16.89%E -4.07%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.32%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -2.81%E -0.519%K -0.638%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.87%EV -16.89%E -4.07%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-20 14:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.32%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 17.57%EV -4.25%E -0.798%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -6.88%E -1.48%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 14:45 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -4.61%E -0.869%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.89%E -3.23%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-20 14:43 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -5.18%E -3.38%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -5.51%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -9.88%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 14:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -5.51%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -4.88%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-20 14:28 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.88%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -5.51%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -3.87%E -0.807%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-20 14:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.52%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -5.51%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -7.88%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 14:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.62%EV -5.80%E -3.81%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -6.41%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.36%EV -7.88%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-20 14:47 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -10.00%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -9.88%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.14%EV -9.52%E -6.52%K -20.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -10.00%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -7.88%E -1.71%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-20 14:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.00%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -15.89%E -3.78%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.00%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -15.89%E -3.78%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.00%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -15.89%E -3.78%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.00%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -15.89%E -3.78%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -10.76%E -7.47%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.00%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.88%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-20 14:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 08:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 08:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 08:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 08:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -3.32%E -2.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.42%EV -9.52%E -6.52%K -20.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -11.80%E -2.41%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -3.87%E -0.807%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-20 14:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.94%EV -5.18%E -3.38%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.43%EV -13.60%E -2.83%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.88%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.25%EV -10.76%E -7.47%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -13.60%E -2.83%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -13.29%E -3.07%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-20 14:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.92%EV -12.00%E -8.45%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.32%EV -13.60%E -2.83%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.76%EV -10.88%E -2.45%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.92%EV -12.00%E -8.45%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.32%EV -13.60%E -2.83%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.76%EV -10.88%E -2.45%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.40%EV -10.14%E -6.99%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.24%EV -13.60%E -2.83%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.36%EV -17.89%E -4.36%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.50%EV -6.42%E -4.25%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -15.40%E -3.28%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -15.89%E -3.78%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.01%EV -10.76%E -7.47%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.00%EV -15.40%E -3.28%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.00%EV -5.88%E -1.25%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 14:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.14%EV -2.08%E -1.32%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.09%EV -16.30%E -3.51%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.88%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 14:27 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -17.20%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -17.20%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -17.20%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -17.20%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -11.88%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 14:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.27%EV -7.66%E -5.14%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -17.20%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%EV -17.89%E -4.36%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.27%EV -7.66%E -5.14%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -17.20%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%EV -17.89%E -4.36%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.27%EV -7.66%E -5.14%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -17.20%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%EV -17.89%E -4.36%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.27%EV -7.66%E -5.14%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -17.20%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%EV -17.89%E -4.36%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-20 08:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -10.76%E -7.47%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -19.00%E -4.22%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -9.88%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-20 14:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.29% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.84% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-09-20 14:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.29% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.84% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-09-20 14:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.70% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 0.9% | 2026-09-20 14:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.44% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79% | 1.1% | 2026-09-20 14:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.40% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65% | 1.8% | 2026-09-20 14:54 |