The School of Odds

Talleres v Velez Sarsfield BA

2026-07-30 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 43.16%2.32fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.33%43.18%43.16%43.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.092.132.2251%48%47%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 24.59%4.07fair odd
EV -5.84%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.30%24.61%24.59%25.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.353.643.683.8330%27%27%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 32.26%3.10fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.76%32.22%32.26%32.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.832.9538%36%35%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.19%E -1.89%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.80%EV -5.84%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.42%EV -5.49%E -1.87%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 19:39
Marathon Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.79%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.81%EV -7.56%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 19:35
Codere (IT)2.16I 46.30%NM 42.99%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 16:49
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 16:49
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 16:54
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -6.57%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 17:18
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.49%E -3.19%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-17 16:54
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 42.33%EV -11.53%E -5.62%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -16.41%E -4.83%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -12.90%E -4.78%K -7.59%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-17 16:52
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.14%EV -13.69%E -6.84%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.30%EV -12.72%E -3.58%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.56%EV -14.52%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-17 16:49
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.10%EV -13.69%E -6.84%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.98%EV -15.18%E -4.40%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.92%EV -12.90%E -4.78%K -7.59%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-17 16:49
Unibet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 43.24%EV -14.55%E -7.35%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.46%EV -13.95%E -3.99%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.30%EV -14.52%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%16.8%2026-07-17 16:49
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 42.51%EV -14.55%E -7.35%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.12%EV -17.64%E -5.27%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.37%EV -16.13%E -6.20%K -10.08%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-17 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.