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Talleres v Velez Sarsfield BA
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Talleres (Local)
Predicción 41.16%2.43momio equitativo
EV +4.96%
Ventaja +1.95%
Kelly +3.20%
Crecimiento +0.159%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.83%40.92%41.21%42.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.292.302.5547.62%43.65%43.48%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante)
Predicción 26.08%3.83momio equitativo
EV +3.26%
Ventaja +0.824%
Kelly +1.10%
Crecimiento +0.036%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.96
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.28%26.31%26.03%30.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.473.503.9633.33%28.82%28.57%25.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 32.76%3.05momio equitativo
EV -3.03%
Ventaja -1.02%
Kelly -1.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.96
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.57%32.77%32.76%33.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.672.842.852.9637.45%35.27%35.09%33.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Talleres (Local): 41.16%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante): 26.08%; Empate: 32.76%. Para Talleres (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.43. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.96%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV +4.96%E +1.95%K +3.20%G +0.159% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -20.47%E -6.71%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -4.99%E -1.72%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 20:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV +2.91%E +1.16%K +1.94%G +0.056% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -17.86%E -5.67%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -4.99%E -1.72%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-30 21:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV +2.91%E +1.16%K +1.94%G +0.056% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -17.86%E -5.67%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -4.99%E -1.72%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -1.21%E -0.504%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -20.47%E -6.71%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -1.21%E -0.504%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -20.47%E -6.71%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -2.03%E -0.855%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -21.77%E -7.26%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-30 21:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.14%EV -3.27%E -1.39%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.20%EV -3.78%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66%EV -3.03%E -1.02%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-30 21:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.14%EV -3.27%E -1.39%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.20%EV -3.78%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66%EV -3.03%E -1.02%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-30 21:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.85%EV -4.50%E -1.94%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -7.43%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.46%EV -4.34%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.85%EV -4.50%E -1.94%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -7.43%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.46%EV -4.34%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.93%EV -4.92%E -2.13%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.17%EV -6.63%E -2.33%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.06%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.26%EV -0.125%E -0.033%K -0.044%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.68%EV -3.03%E -1.02%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -3.52%E -0.950%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -6.63%E -2.33%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.99%E -1.72%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.52%E -0.950%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-30 21:48 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.60%EV -5.98%E -2.08%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -6.63%E -2.33%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.34%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-30 21:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -15.25%E -4.69%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -5.65%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-30 21:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -16.55%E -5.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -4.99%E -1.72%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-30 21:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -5.33%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -17.86%E -5.67%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -6.63%E -2.33%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-30 21:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.99%EV -5.74%E -2.51%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV +3.26%E +0.824%K +1.10%G +0.036% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.74%EV -6.63%E -2.33%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-30 21:47 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.80%EV -7.38%E -3.28%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.43%EV -4.99%E -1.72%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.38%E -3.28%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -6.63%E -2.33%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.38%E -3.28%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -5.65%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.38%E -3.28%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.63%E -2.33%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-30 21:48 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.38%E -3.28%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.38%E -3.28%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -11.34%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -5.65%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-30 21:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.62%EV -7.80%E -3.48%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.83%EV -6.96%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%EV -9.44%E -4.29%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.44%E -4.29%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -11.55%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.44%E -4.29%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -11.55%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.44%E -4.29%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.34%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.55%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.22%EV -11.09%E -5.13%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -11.55%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-30 21:48 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.26%EV -11.50%E -5.35%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -12.64%E -3.77%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -9.91%E -3.60%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.52%EV -12.74%E -6.01%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.97%EV -12.53%E -4.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -13.56%E -6.46%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -9.91%E -3.60%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.02% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53% | 0.7% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.02% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53% | 0.7% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.02% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53% | 0.7% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.99% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.46% | 1.7% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00% | 3.1% | 2026-07-30 21:45 |