Language:English
San Lorenzo v Independiente
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
San Lorenzo (Local)
Prediction 29.70%3.37fair odd
EV -0.787%
Edge -0.236%
Kelly -0.336%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.87%29.74%29.76%31.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.113.3434.48%32.13%32.15%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente (Visit)
Prediction 34.35%2.91fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.743%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.39%34.42%34.24%39.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.682.702.8545.45%37.38%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 35.95%2.78fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.85%35.84%35.99%37.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.572.592.7042.19%38.91%38.54%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 29.70%; Independiente (Visit): 34.35%; Draw: 35.95%. For San Lorenzo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.34, with an expected value of -0.787%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.47%EV -0.787%E -0.236%K -0.336%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.58%EV -9.05%E -3.58%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.47%EV -0.787%E -0.236%K -0.336%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.58%EV -9.05%E -3.58%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 21:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -2.12%E -0.743%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.81%EV -3.15%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.39%EV -5.81%E -2.22%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.55%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -5.81%E -2.22%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 14:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 21:36 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 21:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.56%EV -6.93%E -2.56%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.17%EV -6.89%E -2.66%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.55%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 21:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 21:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -5.54%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.67%EV -7.61%E -2.83%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.01%EV -6.89%E -2.66%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -4.52%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV -7.25%E -2.81%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -4.52%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV -7.25%E -2.81%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -5.55%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 21:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.60%EV -7.32%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -15.85%E -6.47%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-02 21:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 21:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 21:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 21:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -8.99%E -3.39%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 14:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -10.02%E -3.82%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -11.92%E -4.87%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-02 21:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.27%EV -24.44%E -11.11%K -20.37%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.85%EV -5.45%E -2.07%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-05-02 21:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -9.40%E -3.08%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -10.70%E -4.12%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.63%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -9.40%E -3.08%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -12.42%E -4.87%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -9.40%E -3.08%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.71%EV -14.14%E -5.65%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -5.55%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -10.02%E -3.82%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.81%E -2.22%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 21:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -10.70%E -4.12%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-02 21:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-02 21:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-02 21:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.90%EV -10.70%E -4.12%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.72%EV -13.72%E -5.72%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-02 21:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.93%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 34.44%EV -13.45%E -5.34%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 36.62%EV -14.80%E -6.24%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-02 21:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -12.37%E -4.19%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-02 21:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -13.86%E -4.78%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -10.02%E -3.82%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -2.93%E -1.09%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -13.86%E -4.78%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.18%EV -14.14%E -5.65%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.49%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.32% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.05% | 0.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.73% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.38% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.89% | 1.9% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.30% | 2.0% | 2026-05-02 21:25 |