La escuela de los momios

San Lorenzo v Independiente

Inicio: 2026-05-02 21:45 UTC

Final: San Lorenzo 1–2 Independiente

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

San Lorenzo (Local)

Predicción 29.70%3.37momio equitativo
EV -0.787%
Ventaja -0.236%
Kelly -0.336%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.87%29.74%29.76%31.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.113.113.3434.48%32.13%32.15%29.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Independiente (Visitante)

Predicción 34.35%2.91momio equitativo
EV -2.12%
Ventaja -0.743%
Kelly -1.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.39%34.42%34.24%39.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.682.702.8545.45%37.38%37.04%35.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 35.95%2.78momio equitativo
EV -2.93%
Ventaja -1.09%
Kelly -1.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.85%35.84%35.99%37.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.372.572.592.7042.19%38.91%38.54%37.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag3.34I 29.94%NM 28.47%EV -0.787%E -0.236%K -0.336%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.58%EV -9.05%E -3.58%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 21:20
BetOnline.ag3.34I 29.94%NM 28.47%EV -0.787%E -0.236%K -0.336%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.58%EV -9.05%E -3.58%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 21:20
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -2.12%E -0.743%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 21:40
Pinnacle3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.81%EV -3.15%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.39%EV -5.81%E -2.22%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 21:40
Unibet (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 21:40
DraftKings3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.55%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 21:40
Ladbrokes (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -5.81%E -2.22%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 14:35
Bovada3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:36
theScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:40
BetAnything3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:35
1xBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.56%EV -6.93%E -2.56%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.17%EV -6.89%E -2.66%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 21:40
FanDuel3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.55%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 21:30
SportsBet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 21:30
Marathon Bet3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -5.54%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.67%EV -7.61%E -2.83%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.01%EV -6.89%E -2.66%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 21:40
Betsson3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -4.52%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV -7.25%E -2.81%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 21:40
NordicBet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -4.52%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV -7.25%E -2.81%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 21:40
Everygame3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -5.55%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:39
PlayUp3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 21:40
Betclic (FR)3.12I 32.05%NM 28.60%EV -7.32%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -15.85%E -6.47%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 21:20
BetRivers3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 21:15
Unibet (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 21:15
Unibet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 21:15
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -8.99%E -3.39%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 14:30
Paddy Power3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -10.02%E -3.82%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -11.92%E -4.87%K -8.22%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-02 21:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.27%EV -24.44%E -11.11%K -20.37%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.85%EV -5.45%E -2.07%K -3.34%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-02 21:30
Bet Right3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -9.40%E -3.08%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -10.70%E -4.12%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.63%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 21:40
Winamax (DE)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -9.40%E -3.08%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -12.42%E -4.87%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-02 21:40
Unibet (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -9.40%E -3.08%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.71%EV -14.14%E -5.65%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-02 21:40
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -5.55%E -2.02%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 21:40
betfred_uk3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -10.02%E -3.82%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -5.81%E -2.22%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 21:20
Betr (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -10.70%E -4.12%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 21:20
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 21:15
LiveScore Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 21:15
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.90%EV -10.70%E -4.12%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.72%EV -13.72%E -5.72%K -9.80%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-02 21:30
NetBet (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 28.93%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.44%EV -13.45%E -5.34%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 36.62%EV -14.80%E -6.24%K -10.80%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-02 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -12.37%E -4.19%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -7.27%E -2.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-02 21:15
BoyleSports2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -13.86%E -4.78%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -10.02%E -3.82%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -2.93%E -1.09%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 21:40
Winamax (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -13.86%E -4.78%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.18%EV -14.14%E -5.65%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.49%EV -8.33%E -3.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-02 21:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.32%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.05%0.7%2026-05-02 21:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%0.9%2026-05-02 21:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%0.9%2026-05-02 21:40
Matchbook3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%0.9%2026-05-02 21:40
Smarkets3.30I 30.30%NM 29.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.38%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.89%1.9%2026-05-02 21:40
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.30%2.0%2026-05-02 21:25