Language:English
River Plate v San Lorenzo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
River Plate (Local)
Prediction 61.13%1.64fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.92%61.15%61.08%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.511.531.5970.42%66.06%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
San Lorenzo (Visit)
Prediction 12.67%7.89fair odd
EV +5.44%
Edge +0.654%
Kelly +0.743%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 8.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.52%12.66%12.67%14.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.287.258.3216.00%13.73%13.79%12.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.474%
Kelly -0.647%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.16%26.19%26.24%27.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.523.583.7531.25%28.38%27.93%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 61.13%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 12.67%; Draw: 26.19%. For San Lorenzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.89. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.12%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 8.32I 12.02%NM 11.57%EV +5.44%E +0.654%K +0.743%G +0.040% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.31%EV -4.14%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.53%EV +4.55%E +0.552%K +0.628%G +0.029% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -5.18%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.53%EV +4.55%E +0.552%K +0.628%G +0.029% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -5.18%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.09%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.52%EV +4.55%E +0.552%K +0.628%G +0.029% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.72%EV -5.85%E -3.80%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.88%EV +1.38%E +0.173%K +0.198%G +0.003% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.88%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +1.38%E +0.173%K +0.198%G +0.003% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.65%EV -9.52%E -6.43%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV +1.38%E +0.173%K +0.198%G +0.003% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 21:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.82%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.24%EV -2.42%E -0.314%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.82%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.24%EV -2.42%E -0.314%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.08%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.62%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.23%EV -5.85%E -3.80%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.39%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.93%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -7.08%E -4.65%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%EV -12.26%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.93%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.90%EV -11.97%E -8.31%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.75%EV -5.85%E -3.80%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -8.12%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 21:47 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.12%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -8.12%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.98%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 21:31 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.83%EV -7.08%E -4.65%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.75%EV -8.12%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.19%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.45%EV -8.12%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.36%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.41%EV -2.80%E -1.76%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.24I 13.81%NM 13.27%EV -8.25%E -1.14%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.32%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.84%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.92%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.05%EV -10.74%E -7.36%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-10 21:33 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.40%EV -11.97%E -8.31%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.42%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.18%EV -16.18%E -5.06%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -4.63%E -2.97%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.03%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -1.78%E -0.474%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.87%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.98%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -1.78%E -0.474%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 21:53 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.23%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.18%EV -8.91%E -5.98%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.19%EV -13.19%E -9.29%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.87%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.94%EV -12.26%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.56%EV -11.97%E -8.31%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.02%EV -15.09%E -2.25%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -17.62%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -17.62%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.81%EV -9.52%E -6.43%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -17.62%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.35%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.13%EV -10.74%E -7.36%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.05%EV -20.79%E -3.33%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.92% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.58% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.10% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24% | 2.9% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |