La escuela de los momiosEspañol
River Plate v San Lorenzo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
River Plate (Local)
Predicción 61.13%1.64momio equitativo
EV -2.80%
Ventaja -1.76%
Kelly -4.74%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.59
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.92%61.15%61.08%62.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.421.511.531.5970.42%66.06%65.36%62.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
San Lorenzo (Visitante)
Predicción 12.67%7.89momio equitativo
EV +5.44%
Ventaja +0.654%
Kelly +0.743%
Crecimiento +0.040%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.32
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.52%12.66%12.67%14.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.257.287.258.3216.00%13.73%13.79%12.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 26.19%3.82momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.474%
Kelly -0.647%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.16%26.19%26.24%27.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.523.583.7531.25%28.38%27.93%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.12%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 8.32I 12.02%NM 11.57%EV +5.44%E +0.654%K +0.743%G +0.040% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.31%EV -4.14%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.53%EV +4.55%E +0.552%K +0.628%G +0.029% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -5.18%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.53%EV +4.55%E +0.552%K +0.628%G +0.029% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -5.18%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| BetAnything | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.09%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.52%EV +4.55%E +0.552%K +0.628%G +0.029% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| DraftKings | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.72%EV -5.85%E -3.80%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.88%EV +1.38%E +0.173%K +0.198%G +0.003% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| SportsBet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.88%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +1.38%E +0.173%K +0.198%G +0.003% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| FanDuel | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.65%EV -9.52%E -6.43%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV +1.38%E +0.173%K +0.198%G +0.003% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 21:19 |
| NordicBet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.82%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.24%EV -2.42%E -0.314%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Betsson | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.82%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.24%EV -2.42%E -0.314%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.08%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.62%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.23%EV -5.85%E -3.80%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| Everygame | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.39%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| BoyleSports | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.93%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| Bet Right | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -7.08%E -4.65%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%EV -12.26%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| betfred_uk | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.93%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.90%EV -11.97%E -8.31%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -4.95%E -0.660%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Bovada | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.75%EV -5.85%E -3.80%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -8.12%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 21:47 |
| BetMGM | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.12%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -8.12%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.98%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 21:31 |
| PlayUp | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.83%EV -7.08%E -4.65%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.75%EV -8.12%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.19%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.45%EV -8.12%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.36%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| 1xBet | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.41%EV -2.80%E -1.76%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.24I 13.81%NM 13.27%EV -8.25%E -1.14%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.32%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| BetRivers | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| theScore Bet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.84%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| Betway | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -6.46%E -4.22%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| Sky Bet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.92%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.05%EV -10.74%E -7.36%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-10 21:33 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.40%EV -11.97%E -8.31%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.42%EV -11.29%E -1.61%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.18%EV -16.18%E -5.06%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -4.63%E -2.97%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.03%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -1.78%E -0.474%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Unibet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.87%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.98%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -1.78%E -0.474%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 21:53 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%EV -5.24%E -3.38%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.23%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.18%EV -8.91%E -5.98%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.19%EV -13.19%E -9.29%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.87%EV -14.46%E -2.14%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.94%EV -12.26%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.56%EV -11.97%E -8.31%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.02%EV -15.09%E -2.25%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-10 21:34 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -17.62%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -8.30%E -5.53%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -17.62%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.81%EV -9.52%E -6.43%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -17.62%E -2.71%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.35%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.13%EV -10.74%E -7.36%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.05%EV -20.79%E -3.33%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.92% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.58% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Matchbook | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |
| Kalshi | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.10% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24% | 2.9% | 2026-05-10 21:54 |