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Vegas Golden Knights v Calgary Flames
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vegas Golden Knights (Local)
Prediction 67.26%1.49fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -5.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%67.31%67.13%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.421.421.4576.34%70.46%70.42%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Calgary Flames (Visit)
Prediction 32.74%3.05fair odd
EV -0.140%
Edge -0.046%
Kelly -0.068%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%32.69%32.87%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.672.902.903.0537.45%34.49%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vegas Golden Knights (Local): 67.26%; Calgary Flames (Visit): 32.74%. For Calgary Flames (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.054. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.050, with an expected value of -0.140%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.27%EV -2.47%E -1.71%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.73%EV -2.43%E -0.816%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.74%EV -2.47%E -1.71%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -4.72%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.74%EV -2.47%E -1.71%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -4.72%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -2.47%E -1.71%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -8.33%E -2.97%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -2.47%E -1.71%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -8.33%E -2.97%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -2.47%E -1.71%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -11.60%E -4.30%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.69%E -2.35%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-03 02:02 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -8.98%E -3.23%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -8.98%E -3.23%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.41%E -1.16%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-03 02:03 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV -4.07%E -1.39%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-03 01:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 02:03 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -5.71%E -1.98%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.36%E -2.22%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.49%E -3.16%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.78%E -0.592%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.49%E -3.16%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.41%E -1.16%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.49%E -3.16%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.41%E -1.16%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.49%E -3.16%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.49%E -3.16%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.49%E -3.16%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.49%E -3.16%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%EV -5.38%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-03 02:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.16%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.78%E -0.592%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.16%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.78%E -0.592%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.140%E -0.046%K -0.068%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.78%E -0.592%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 01:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.78%E -0.592%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.78%E -0.592%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.78%E -0.592%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.41%E -1.16%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 01:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.33%E -2.97%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-03 02:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.33%E -2.97%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 67.09%EV -11.89%E -9.08%K -38.36%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.91%EV -12.58%E -4.71%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-03 02:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.4% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03% | 1.6% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.12% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.88% | 2.1% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.12% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.88% | 2.1% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57% | 2.2% | 2026-04-03 01:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.88% | 2.7% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.60% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16% | 3.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.60% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16% | 3.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.60% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16% | 3.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.60% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16% | 3.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.06% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.97% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.97% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.28% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.49% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 01:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.86% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.47% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.67% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 01:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01% | 5.2% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.64% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24% | 7.0% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19% | 7.7% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.07% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51% | 8.1% | 2026-04-03 01:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43% | 8.8% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38% | 8.8% | 2026-04-03 02:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43% | 8.8% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.80% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47% | 9.3% | 2026-04-03 02:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.22% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.48% | 9.7% | 2026-04-03 02:03 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19% | 12.6% | 2026-04-03 02:04 |