The School of Odds

Las Vegas Aces v Phoenix Mercury

2026-07-11 22:00 UTC — WNBA

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Las Vegas Aces (Local)

Prediction 79.06%1.26fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -3.58%
Kelly -20.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.36%78.82%79.06%81.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.171.201.201.2185%83%83%83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Phoenix Mercury (Visit)

Prediction 20.94%4.78fair odd
EV +6.79%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.113%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%21.18%20.94%22.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.054.494.505.1025%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -6.71%E -5.69%K -37.27%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV +6.79%E +1.33%K +1.66%G +0.113%4.4%2026-07-10 05:43
SportsBet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.71%E -5.69%K -37.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -1.58%E -0.337%K -0.428%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 06:19
Fanatics1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.34%E -3.58%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -3.68%E -0.799%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-10 05:24
FanDuel1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.68%E -0.799%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 06:20
theScore Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.68%E -0.799%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 05:30
Betr (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.68%E -0.799%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 05:54
Bet Right1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.68%E -0.799%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 05:54
Coolbet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.92%E -4.97%K -31.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -3.68%E -0.799%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 06:29
Unibet (UK)1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.34%E -3.58%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.77%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 05:30
MyBookie.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.34%E -3.58%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.77%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 05:33
Hard Rock Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.34%E -3.58%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.77%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 05:59
888sport1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.77%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 05:30
Mr Green (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.77%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 05:30
888sport (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.77%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 05:30
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.50%E -6.41%K -44.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.77%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-10 06:17
Fliff1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.34%E -3.58%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -9.96%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 05:44
Betsson1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -9.96%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 05:30
NordicBet1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -9.96%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 05:30
ReBet1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -9.96%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 05:34
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -5.13%E -4.27%K -25.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -14.15%E -3.45%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-10 05:34
LeoVegas1.18I 84.75%NM 77.44%EV -6.71%E -5.69%K -37.27%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.56%EV -15.19%E -3.75%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-10 05:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%0.7%2026-07-10 05:34
Polymarket1.20I 83.33%NM 79.87%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.13%4.3%2026-07-10 06:39