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Las Vegas Aces v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Las Vegas Aces (Local)
Prediction 76.01%1.32fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -12.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.23%75.89%76.11%77.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.2783.33%79.86%79.68%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 23.99%4.17fair odd
EV +0.745%
Edge +0.177%
Kelly +0.233%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.79%24.11%23.89%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.933.954.2027.78%25.46%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.745%E +0.177%K +0.233%G +0.002% | 4.5% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Bet Victor | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -1.65%E -0.403%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-11 22:03 |
| Fanatics | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -1.65%E -0.403%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Caesars | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -1.65%E -0.403%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:03 |
| Fliff | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -2.85%E -0.704%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -3.33%E -0.827%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -3.33%E -0.827%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| DraftKings | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| GTbets | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| BetUS | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| 888sport | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| Bet Right | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Neds | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| TAB | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-11 21:50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.76%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.24%EV -4.77%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Unibet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Bovada | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:03 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| betPARX | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Bally Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| BetRivers | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| TABtouch | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| BetAnything | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -5.97%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| theScore Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -6.45%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-11 22:03 |
| ReBet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| Betway | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Coolbet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -8.78%E -7.32%K -43.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Betsson | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-11 22:00 |
| NordicBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| LeoVegas | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.02%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -12.45%E -3.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| BoyleSports | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-11 21:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.2% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Novig | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.81% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 25.19% | 1.3% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Polymarket | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53% | 1.9% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| ProphetX | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45% | 4.8% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Matchbook | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00% | 6.7% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00% | 6.7% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25% | 7.0% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |