La escuela de los momiosLas Vegas Aces v Phoenix Mercury
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Las Vegas Aces (Local)
Predicción 76.01%1.32momio equitativo
EV -3.46%
Ventaja -2.73%
Kelly -12.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
74.23%75.89%76.11%77.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.201.251.251.2783.33%79.86%79.68%78.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Phoenix Mercury (Visitante)
Predicción 23.99%4.17momio equitativo
EV +0.745%
Ventaja +0.177%
Kelly +0.233%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.79%24.11%23.89%25.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.933.954.2027.78%25.46%25.32%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.745%E +0.177%K +0.233%G +0.002% | 4.5% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Bet Victor | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -1.65%E -0.403%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-11 22:03 |
| Fanatics | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -1.65%E -0.403%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Caesars | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -1.65%E -0.403%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:03 |
| Fliff | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -2.85%E -0.704%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -3.33%E -0.827%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -3.33%E -0.827%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| DraftKings | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| GTbets | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| BetUS | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| 888sport | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| Bet Right | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Neds | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| TAB | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.05%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-11 21:50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.76%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.24%EV -4.77%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Unibet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Bovada | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:03 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| betPARX | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Bally Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| BetRivers | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| TABtouch | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.25%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| BetAnything | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -5.97%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| theScore Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -6.45%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-11 22:03 |
| ReBet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| Betway | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Coolbet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -8.78%E -7.32%K -43.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Betsson | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-11 22:00 |
| NordicBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-11 21:59 |
| LeoVegas | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.02%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -12.45%E -3.41%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| BoyleSports | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-11 21:58 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.2% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Novig | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.81% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 25.19% | 1.3% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Polymarket | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53% | 1.9% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| ProphetX | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45% | 4.8% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Matchbook | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00% | 6.7% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00% | 6.7% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25% | 7.0% | 2026-07-11 22:05 |