Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Diego Padres v Washington Nationals

2026-09-09 01:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (17 en el análisis )

63%

37%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Predicción 62.87%1.59momio equitativo

EV +1.22%

Ventaja +0.756%

Kelly +2.00%

Crecimiento +0.024%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

58.82%62.78%62.95%63.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.461.521.531.6168.49%65.70%65.36%62.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Predicción 37.13%2.69momio equitativo

EV -1.60%

Ventaja -0.604%

Kelly -0.970%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

36.59%37.22%37.05%41.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.302.532.552.6543.48%39.50%39.22%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: San Diego Padres (Local): 62.87%; Washington Nationals (Visitante): 37.13%. Para San Diego Padres (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.59. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 1.61, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.22%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
ReBet🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV +1.22%E +0.756%K +2.00%G +0.024%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -14.60%E -6.35%K -11.23%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-08 02:00
1xBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.26%EV +0.589%E +0.368%K +0.982%G +0.006%	2.53I 39.53%NM 38.74%EV -6.06%E -2.39%K -3.96%G +0.000%	2.0%	2026-09-07 22:35
Caesars🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.95%EV -1.93%E -1.23%K -3.44%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 37.05%EV -1.60%E -0.604%K -0.970%G +0.000%	1.8%	2026-09-08 01:40
Neds🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.55%E -1.65%K -4.64%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -9.03%E -3.68%K -6.23%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-08 01:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.55%E -1.65%K -4.64%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -9.03%E -3.68%K -6.23%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-08 01:45
Fliff🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.18%E -2.07%K -5.89%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-07 22:15
Betsson🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.18%E -2.07%K -5.89%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -7.91%E -3.19%K -5.35%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-07 22:55
NordicBet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.18%E -2.07%K -5.89%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -7.91%E -3.19%K -5.35%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-07 22:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.46%E -1.33%K -2.16%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-09-07 22:09
theScore Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.46%E -1.33%K -2.16%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-09-07 23:40
Betway🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.46%E -1.33%K -2.16%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-09-08 01:44
FanDuel🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -4.20%E -1.63%K -2.66%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-07 22:09
Bet Right🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-07 22:50
BetRivers🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:24
Unibet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:25
Casumo🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:25
Bally Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:25
betPARX🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:24
Svenska Spel🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-08 00:25
BetMGM🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -5.69%E -2.24%K -3.69%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-08 01:44
betfred_uk🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-07 22:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-08 01:45
Coral🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-08 01:45
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.81%E -2.49%K -7.19%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.03%E -3.68%K -6.23%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-08 02:40
DraftKings🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.02%EV -4.44%E -2.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%	2.59I 38.61%NM 36.98%EV -3.83%E -1.48%K -2.41%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-08 00:50
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.44%E -2.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-07 22:15
Coolbet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.44%E -2.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-07 22:50
PlayUp🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.44%E -2.92%K -8.54%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-08 00:50
Fanatics🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.07%E -3.36%K -9.94%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.46%E -1.33%K -2.16%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-08 02:05
Betr (AU)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.07%E -3.36%K -9.94%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-07 22:50
TABtouch🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.07%E -3.36%K -9.94%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-08 00:25
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.46%E -1.33%K -2.16%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-08 01:15
Paddy Power🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-07 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-08 00:48
Bet Victor🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-08 00:50
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-08 00:50
888sport🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-07 22:50
888sport (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-07 22:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-07 22:50
betano_uk🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.31%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-08 00:50
SportsBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -5.69%E -2.24%K -3.69%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-07 22:10
Virgin Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-08 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.70%E -3.80%K -11.40%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-08 00:25
Grosvenor🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.78%EV -7.58%E -5.16%K -16.14%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 37.22%EV -7.91%E -3.19%K -5.35%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-08 00:25
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.58%E -5.16%K -16.14%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -9.03%E -3.68%K -6.23%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-08 01:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 62.18%EV -8.21%E -5.62%K -17.85%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -10.88%E -4.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-09-08 00:50

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Kalshi◎	1.61I 62.11%NM 62.03%	2.63I 38.02%NM 37.97%	0.1%	2026-09-08 01:15
Polymarket◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%	2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%	0.9%	2026-09-08 01:05
Novig◎	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.99%	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.01%	2.8%	2026-09-08 02:40
ProphetX◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%	8.8%	2026-09-08 02:40
Smarkets◎	1.46I 68.49%NM 62.18%	2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%	10.2%	2026-09-08 00:55

Arbitraje (1 combinación) +0.15%ReBet 1.61 (62.2%) / Caesars 2.65 (37.8%)Ver detalles

ReBet🎯 Caesars🎯

San Diego Padres (Local)	Washington Nationals (Visitante)	Margen
ReBet🎯 1.61 (62.2%)	Caesars🎯 2.65 (37.8%)	+0.153%