Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals

Início: 2026-08-06 22:06 UTC

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 7–3 Washington Nationals

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Previsão 73.90%1.35odd justa
EV -2.45%
Vantagem -1.86%
Kelly -7.66%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.32

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
71.74%73.85%73.98%75.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.231.291.291.3281.30%77.49%77.52%75.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Previsão 26.10%3.83odd justa
EV +5.19%
Vantagem +1.29%
Kelly +1.71%
Crescimento +0.089%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.03

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.39%26.15%26.02%28.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.683.704.0330.30%27.17%27.03%24.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 73.90%; Washington Nationals (Visitante): 26.10%. Para Washington Nationals (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.83. 8 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.03, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.19%.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
DraftKings🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 75.61%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.39%EV +5.19%E +1.29%K +1.71%G +0.089%1.7%2026-08-06 22:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%EV +4.40%E +1.10%K +1.47%G +0.065%1.3%2026-08-06 21:49
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.43%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.57%EV +3.36%E +0.848%K +1.13%G +0.038%2.8%2026-08-06 21:40
Caesars🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%EV +3.10%E +0.784%K +1.05%G +0.033%2.8%2026-08-06 21:40
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%EV +0.487%E +0.127%K +0.171%G +0.001%2.9%2026-08-06 21:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%EV +0.487%E +0.127%K +0.171%G +0.001%2.9%2026-08-06 21:40
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -6.15%E -4.84%K -22.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV +0.487%E +0.127%K +0.171%G +0.001%4.7%2026-08-06 21:55
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.56%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.44%EV +0.226%E +0.059%K +0.080%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-06 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.46%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.54%EV -0.296%E -0.077%K -0.105%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-06 21:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.46%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.54%EV -0.296%E -0.077%K -0.105%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-06 21:40
1xBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 74.27%EV -2.45%E -1.86%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.73%EV -0.557%E -0.146%K -0.198%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-06 21:40
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.36%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.64%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-06 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-06 21:50
Casumo🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:40
betPARX🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:40
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:40
Bally Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:50
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 21:50
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.15%E -4.84%K -22.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -0.818%E -0.215%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 21:05
Fliff🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -2.12%E -0.566%K -0.772%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.89%E -5.47%K -26.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.12%E -0.566%K -0.772%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 21:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.89%E -5.47%K -26.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.12%E -0.566%K -0.772%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 21:40
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.45%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.55%EV -2.64%E -0.709%K -0.969%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 19:45
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.85%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-06 21:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-06 22:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-06 19:40
BetAnything🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-06 21:40
Bovada🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-06 21:41
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 21:55
Coolbet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 21:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.15%E -4.84%K -22.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:20
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.63%E -6.10%K -30.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.43%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 19:40
ReBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-06 22:04
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 22:05
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -9.10%E -7.40%K -39.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-06 21:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.98%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.02%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 22:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -2.45%E -1.86%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-06 22:05
TAB🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -2.45%E -1.86%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-06 21:40
GTbets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 21:40
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 22:01
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 19:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 19:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 19:45
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -6.89%E -5.47%K -26.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-06 22:05
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.03%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.13%E -2.31%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 21:15
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.03%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.13%E -2.31%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 21:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.19%E -2.44%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-06 22:05
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-06 19:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 22:04
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 21:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.41%E -4.23%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-06 21:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -2.45%E -1.86%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 22:04
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -2.45%E -1.86%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 22:04
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 21:53
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 22:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.67%E -3.62%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 22:05
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -3.93%E -3.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -13.87%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 22:03
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -6.15%E -4.84%K -22.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -13.87%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-06 22:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX◎1.33I 75.19%NM 75.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95%0.2%2026-08-06 22:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19%0.5%2026-08-06 22:05
Kalshi◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-06 21:45
Novig◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-06 21:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-08-06 21:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-08-06 21:40
Polymarket◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.2%2026-08-06 21:15
Matchbook◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29%1.4%2026-08-06 22:05
BetOpenly◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.32%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.68%1.9%2026-08-06 21:55
Smarkets◎1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%3.2%2026-08-06 22:05