Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals

2026-08-05 22:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 60.47%1.65momio equitativo
EV -1.44%
Ventaja -0.882%
Kelly -2.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.14%60.44%60.45%61.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.581.581.6365.79%63.12%63.29%61.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Predicción 39.53%2.53momio equitativo
EV +0.808%
Ventaja +0.317%
Kelly +0.522%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.26%39.56%39.55%40.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.402.402.5543.48%41.67%41.67%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 60.47%; Washington Nationals (Visitante): 39.53%. Para Washington Nationals (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.53. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.55, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.808%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.58I 63.29%NM 61.74%EV -4.46%E -2.82%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.26%EV +0.808%E +0.317%K +0.522%G +0.004%2.5%2026-08-05 01:10
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%EV -2.04%E -1.26%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%EV -1.17%E -0.467%K -0.779%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-04 22:39
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%EV -2.04%E -1.26%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%EV -1.17%E -0.467%K -0.779%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-05 01:09
GTbets1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -1.96%E -0.790%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:04
LowVig.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -2.35%E -0.953%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 01:05
BetOnline.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -2.35%E -0.953%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 01:05
1xBet1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%EV -1.44%E -0.882%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%EV -2.75%E -1.12%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-05 00:55
BetUS1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-05 01:05
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.86%E -2.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-05 01:10
MyBookie.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.46%E -2.82%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 01:25
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:08
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:09
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:09
Betway1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.14%E -1.28%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:09
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -3.94%E -1.62%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:29
BetAnything1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -4.33%E -1.79%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-05 02:25
TAB1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.04%E -1.26%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-05 02:29
Unibet (NL)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:30
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:29
Unibet (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:30
Svenska Spel1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:30
PointsBet (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.86%E -2.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 01:09
Bet Right1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.46%E -2.82%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:10
Coolbet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.46%E -2.82%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:24
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 01:10
Unibet (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 01:09
Betr (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 01:14
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 01:09
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 01:09
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 02:39
ReBet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.67%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 01:09
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.67%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 01:09
betano_uk1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 01:09
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.28%E -4.05%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.12%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 01:08
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -5.52%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 21:40
Betclic (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -5.67%E -3.64%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -5.52%E -2.31%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 01:10
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 18:30
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:30
Unibet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:30
Bally Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:28
ATG (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:30
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 01:30
Marathon Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.46%E -2.82%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 00:30
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 18:29
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 01:24
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.91%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 01:30
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.10%E -3.02%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 23:24
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.10%E -3.02%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 01:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.25%E -2.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.10%E -3.02%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 01:10
Fliff1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -3.86%E -2.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -7.10%E -3.02%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 01:30
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.10%E -3.02%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 18:29
Virgin Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.10%E -3.02%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 01:30
LiveScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.07%E -3.23%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.10%E -3.02%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 01:30
Betsson1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -7.89%E -3.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:30
NordicBet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.65%E -1.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -7.89%E -3.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:29
Grosvenor1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.49%E -4.89%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.07%E -3.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-05 01:29
Unibet (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.09%E -5.32%K -15.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -9.07%E -3.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-05 01:10
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.09%E -5.32%K -15.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -9.07%E -3.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-05 01:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.72%0.1%2026-08-05 01:35
Novig1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-08-05 01:50
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-08-05 01:50
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-08-05 02:20
Polymarket1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-08-05 01:40
Matchbook1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%2.2%2026-08-05 02:20
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%7.6%2026-08-05 02:35