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Elise Mertens v Elena Rybakina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Elise Mertens (Local)
Prediction 21.18%4.72fair odd
EV +5.91%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.087%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.35%21.32%21.08%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.394.405.0026.32%22.78%22.73%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elena Rybakina (Visit)
Prediction 78.82%1.27fair odd
EV -0.690%
Edge -0.548%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.25%78.68%78.92%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.201.201.2686.96%83.23%83.33%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elise Mertens (Local): 21.18%; Elena Rybakina (Visit): 78.82%. For Elise Mertens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +5.91%E +1.18%K +1.48%G +0.087% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV +3.80%E +0.775%K +0.973%G +0.037% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +2.74%E +0.564%K +0.711%G +0.019% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.78I 20.92%NM 19.93%EV +1.25%E +0.262%K +0.332%G +0.004% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.07%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +0.618%E +0.130%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-04 12:04 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -0.441%E -0.094%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-04 12:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.441%E -0.094%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.441%E -0.094%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -1.50%E -0.323%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.24%EV -1.50%E -0.323%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.76%EV -7.00%E -5.93%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.24%EV -1.50%E -0.323%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.76%EV -7.00%E -5.93%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -2.56%E -0.556%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 12:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -2.56%E -0.556%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -7.00%E -5.93%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 09:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -3.83%E -0.844%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -4.63%E -3.83%K -22.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-04 11:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -2.27%E -1.83%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-04 11:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-04 11:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-03 10:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-03 19:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.21%E -5.22%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.78%E -6.65%K -45.79%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.77%EV -6.37%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.23%EV -3.05%E -2.48%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 11:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.80%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.63%E -3.83%K -22.05%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 11:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.80%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 11:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.80%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.00%E -5.93%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.80%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.00%E -5.93%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.80%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.00%E -5.93%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.38I 22.83%NM 22.34%EV -7.22%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.66%EV -0.690%E -0.548%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-07-04 12:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.85%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -7.78%E -6.65%K -45.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.85%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -7.78%E -6.65%K -45.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.85%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -7.78%E -6.65%K -45.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.85%E -1.81%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -7.78%E -6.65%K -45.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 21.23%EV -8.07%E -1.86%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.77%EV -7.78%E -6.65%K -45.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-03 09:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -8.28%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-04 00:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -8.91%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 11:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -8.91%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.63%E -3.83%K -22.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-04 10:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.10%EV -8.91%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.90%EV -9.36%E -8.14%K -62.40%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.97%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 06:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.97%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 11:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.97%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.97%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 13:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -9.97%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -4.63%E -3.83%K -22.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 12:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -9.97%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -7.00%E -5.93%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -9.97%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.56%EV -8.57%E -7.39%K -53.58%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -11.03%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 11:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -11.03%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.42%E -4.52%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -13.15%E -3.21%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -4.63%E -3.83%K -22.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -15.27%E -3.82%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.27%E -1.83%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-03 19:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -15.27%E -3.82%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.27%E -1.83%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-03 19:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.27%E -3.82%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.27%E -3.82%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.27%E -3.82%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 19:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.27%E -3.82%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.27%E -3.82%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.27%E -3.82%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.84%E -3.15%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 09:27 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -19.51%E -5.13%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -1.48%E -1.18%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -19.51%E -5.13%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -1.48%E -1.18%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 11:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21% | 0.2% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-07-04 11:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 1.1% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.73% | 2.8% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |
| Novig◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 12:05 |