Language:English
Naomi Osaka v Katerina Siniakova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Naomi Osaka (Local)
Prediction 76.86%1.30fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -8.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.60%76.87%76.92%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2783.33%80.62%80.65%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Katerina Siniakova (Visit)
Prediction 23.14%4.32fair odd
EV +6.44%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.115%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.69%23.13%23.08%25.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.034.004.6027.03%24.81%25.00%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Naomi Osaka (Local): 76.86%; Katerina Siniakova (Visit): 23.14%. For Katerina Siniakova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.32. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +6.44%E +1.40%K +1.79%G +0.115% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.77%E -6.47%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +6.44%E +1.40%K +1.79%G +0.115% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.77%E -6.47%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +4.13%E +0.917%K +1.18%G +0.049% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.77%E -6.47%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +4.13%E +0.917%K +1.18%G +0.049% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.77%E -6.47%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +4.13%E +0.917%K +1.18%G +0.049% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74%EV -3.16%E -2.50%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%EV +1.81%E +0.412%K +0.533%G +0.010% | 2.1% | 2026-09-03 15:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +0.192%E +0.044%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -0.502%E -0.117%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 14:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -1.66%E -0.390%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.66%E -0.390%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.61%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.39%EV -2.12%E -0.502%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.16%E -2.50%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -2.82%E -0.671%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.82%E -0.671%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 14:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.82%E -0.671%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.46%E -4.44%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.82%E -0.671%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 14:21 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.46%E -4.44%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.82%E -0.671%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 14:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -2.82%E -0.671%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 15:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.77%E -6.47%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -2.82%E -0.671%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 15:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.31%EV -5.46%E -4.44%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 22.69%EV -3.05%E -0.727%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.14%EV -5.46%E -4.44%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -3.97%E -0.957%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 14:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.15%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 22.85%EV -4.67%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 14:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.15%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 22.85%EV -4.67%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 14:21 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.13%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.46%E -4.44%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.13%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 14:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.13%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.13%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.13%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 15:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.16%E -2.50%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 08:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.16%E -2.50%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 08:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 15:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.46%E -4.44%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 15:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 15:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 15:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.44%E -1.86%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 15:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -5.46%E -4.44%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -8.60%E -2.18%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-03 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -9.76%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -9.76%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -9.76%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.23%E -5.11%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -9.76%E -2.50%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -12.07%E -3.18%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 14:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:43 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 13:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.39%E -1.88%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 10:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.23%E -3.53%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 15:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -3.16%E -2.50%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -14.39%E -3.89%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 08:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 14:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 14:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82% | 0.7% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.31% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.69% | 1.3% | 2026-09-03 15:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.90% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10% | 3.0% | 2026-09-03 15:10 |