Language:English
Jasmine Paolini v Lucrezia Stefanini
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jasmine Paolini (Local)
Prediction 67.50%1.48fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -4.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%67.48%67.44%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.421.4574.07%70.76%70.67%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit)
Prediction 32.50%3.08fair odd
EV -0.889%
Edge -0.292%
Kelly -0.434%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.03%32.52%32.56%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.0536.36%34.54%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jasmine Paolini (Local): 67.50%; Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit): 32.50%. For Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -0.889%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.89%EV -2.12%E -1.46%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.11%EV -4.79%E -1.63%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.89%EV -2.12%E -1.46%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.11%EV -4.79%E -1.63%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-02 14:46 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.79%EV -2.79%E -1.94%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.21%EV -1.54%E -0.508%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-02 10:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -2.79%E -1.94%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-02 14:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -2.79%E -1.94%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -6.41%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 11:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.79%E -1.94%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.64%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 14:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.79%E -1.94%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.64%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 14:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.47%E -2.43%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -9.01%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 14:06 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 03:41 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 03:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.80%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -2.84%E -0.950%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 13:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%EV -6.09%E -2.11%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 21:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -7.71%E -2.72%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 11:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.01%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 11:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.01%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.14%E -2.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.64%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-31 04:48 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.82%E -3.42%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -1.21%E -0.399%K -0.595%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.82%E -3.42%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.14%E -1.40%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 03:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.82%E -3.42%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.14%E -1.40%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 03:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -4.82%E -3.42%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -5.11%E -1.75%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 07:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.82%E -3.42%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -6.41%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 04:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 12:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 03:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.14%E -1.40%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 08:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 07:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 14:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 07:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 03:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 07:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 07:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 07:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 12:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 07:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.41%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.41%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 03:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.41%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.01%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.64%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-01 14:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.64%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-01 14:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -0.889%E -0.292%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.25%EV -5.11%E -1.75%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 03:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -5.76%E -1.99%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 03:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.84%E -4.96%K -18.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.889%E -0.292%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.84%E -4.96%K -18.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.19%E -6.02%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -2.51%E -0.838%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-02 05:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-09-02 14:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.66% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.57% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.43% | 2.0% | 2026-09-02 14:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 2.2% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |