Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Iga Swiatek v Qinwen Zheng

2026-09-07 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Iga Swiatek (Local)

Predicción 76.27%1.31momio equitativo
EV -1.61%
Ventaja -1.24%
Kelly -5.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
74.31%76.34%76.19%78.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.201.241.241.2983.33%80.91%80.65%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Qinwen Zheng (Visitante)

Predicción 23.73%4.21momio equitativo
EV +8.90%
Ventaja +1.94%
Kelly +2.48%
Crecimiento +0.221%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.13%23.66%23.81%25.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.504.034.104.5928.57%24.79%24.39%21.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Iga Swiatek (Local): 76.27%; Qinwen Zheng (Visitante): 23.73%. Para Qinwen Zheng (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.21. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.59, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +8.90%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.87%EV -6.18%E -5.03%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 21.13%EV +8.90%E +1.94%K +2.48%G +0.221%3.1%2026-09-06 01:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.72%EV -6.18%E -5.03%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.28%EV +7.95%E +1.75%K +2.24%G +0.178%3.3%2026-09-06 02:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.72%EV -6.18%E -5.03%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.28%EV +7.95%E +1.75%K +2.24%G +0.178%3.3%2026-09-06 02:15
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +0.832%E +0.196%K +0.256%G +0.002%4.2%2026-09-06 01:31
BetAnything🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -6.18%E -5.03%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV +0.832%E +0.196%K +0.256%G +0.002%4.8%2026-09-06 02:20
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.89%E -3.09%K -14.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -0.354%E -0.084%K -0.111%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 01:43
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.354%E -0.084%K -0.111%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 01:40
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.354%E -0.084%K -0.111%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 01:39
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.354%E -0.084%K -0.111%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 01:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.354%E -0.084%K -0.111%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 01:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.354%E -0.084%K -0.111%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 01:40
DraftKings🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.55%EV -0.592%E -0.141%K -0.185%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 01:15
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.08%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.92%EV -1.07%E -0.256%K -0.336%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 01:21
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -8.47%E -7.06%K -42.35%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -1.54%E -0.371%K -0.489%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 01:15
Bet Right🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:05
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:05
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:05
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:04
BetRivers🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:06
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:05
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:05
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:06
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:06
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.73%E -0.665%K -0.880%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:06
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -6.18%E -5.03%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -3.91%E -0.966%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 01:30
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.66%E -3.73%K -18.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.10%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 01:40
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.66%E -3.73%K -18.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.10%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-05 23:05
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.10%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-05 23:06
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.10%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 01:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.18%E -5.03%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.10%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 01:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.18%E -5.03%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.10%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 01:05
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.10%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 01:10
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.10%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 01:40
GTbets🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.01%EV -4.66%E -3.73%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.99%EV -6.05%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 00:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.66%E -3.73%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.29%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 01:15
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -7.00%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:06
Betsson🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -7.00%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Fanatics🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.66%E -3.73%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.47%E -1.92%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 01:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.47%E -1.92%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.47%E -1.92%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 01:21
LeoVegas🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.47%E -1.92%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 01:21
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.66%E -3.73%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.84%E -2.59%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 01:15
Fliff🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.42%E -4.37%K -22.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.84%E -2.59%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 01:40
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.51%EV -1.61%E -1.24%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.49%EV -10.56%E -2.80%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-06 01:25
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.66%E -3.73%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.03%E -2.94%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-05 23:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.55%EV -3.13%E -2.47%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.45%EV -11.74%E -3.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 01:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -14.59%E -4.05%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 01:15
ReBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -6.94%E -5.69%K -31.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -14.59%E -4.05%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 01:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.31%EV -7.71%E -6.37%K -36.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -16.96%E -4.85%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 01:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.31%EV -7.71%E -6.37%K -36.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -16.96%E -4.85%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 01:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%1.9%2026-09-06 01:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%1.9%2026-09-06 01:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%1.9%2026-09-06 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 79.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%1.9%2026-09-06 01:40
ProphetX1.24I 80.65%NM 78.95%4.65I 21.51%NM 21.05%2.2%2026-09-06 02:15
Smarkets1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%3.7%2026-09-06 01:40
Novig1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%4.3%2026-09-06 02:20
Arbitraje (3 combinaciones) +0.70%1xBet 1.29 (78.1%) / Pinnacle 4.59 (21.9%)Ver las 3 combinaciones
Iga Swiatek (Local)Qinwen Zheng (Visitante)Margen
1xBet🎯 1.29 (78.1%)Pinnacle🎯 4.59 (21.9%)+0.699%
1xBet🎯 1.29 (77.9%)LowVig.ag🎯 4.55 (22.1%)+0.505%
1xBet🎯 1.29 (77.9%)BetOnline.ag🎯 4.55 (22.1%)+0.505%