Language:English
Daria Kasatkina v Paula Badosa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daria Kasatkina (Local)
Prediction 46.90%2.13fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.494%
Kelly -0.939%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.88%46.76%46.92%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.032.052.1150.51%49.22%48.78%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Paula Badosa (Visit)
Prediction 53.10%1.88fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%53.24%53.08%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.781.771.8358.48%56.14%56.34%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daria Kasatkina (Local): 46.90%; Paula Badosa (Visit): 53.10%. For Daria Kasatkina (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.11, with an expected value of -1.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -1.04%E -0.494%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -7.60%E -4.37%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-31 21:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.51%E -0.720%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -9.20%E -5.38%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-28 14:26 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 13:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 16:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 16:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -2.92%E -1.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -2.83%E -1.54%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 21:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 14:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 14:13 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 21:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 21:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 21:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 21:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 16:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 18:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 21:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.07%E -4.04%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 21:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.60%E -4.37%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.33%E -2.12%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-01 14:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -4.79%E -2.36%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 05:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-01 13:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-01 13:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-01 21:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 14:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 14:43 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 14:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.07%E -4.04%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.11%EV -5.73%E -2.85%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.89%EV -4.95%E -2.77%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 21:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 14:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 14:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:26 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 14:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 13:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 13:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 21:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 21:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 21:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.60%E -4.37%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-01 19:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.14%E -4.70%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-01 19:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.14%E -4.70%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.21%EV -6.67%E -3.35%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.79%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 14:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.21%EV -6.67%E -3.35%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.79%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 14:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -7.14%E -3.61%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 16:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.14%E -3.61%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 20:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 21:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 21:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 1.0% | 2026-09-01 21:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 1.0% | 2026-09-01 21:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57% | 2.4% | 2026-09-01 21:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57% | 2.6% | 2026-09-01 21:55 |