Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Daria Kasatkina v Paula Badosa

Início: 2026-09-01 21:59 UTC

Final: Daria Kasatkina 0–2 Paula Badosa

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

66 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Daria Kasatkina (Local)

Previsão 46.90%2.13odd justa
EV -1.04%
Vantagem -0.494%
Kelly -0.939%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.11

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
44.88%46.76%46.92%47.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.982.032.052.1150.51%49.22%48.78%47.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Paula Badosa (Visitante)

Previsão 53.10%1.88odd justa
EV -2.83%
Vantagem -1.54%
Kelly -3.40%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.83

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.60%53.24%53.08%55.12%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.711.781.771.8358.48%56.14%56.34%54.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Daria Kasatkina (Local): 46.90%; Paula Badosa (Visitante): 53.10%. Para Daria Kasatkina (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.13. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.11, com valor esperado de -1.04%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (66 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
GTbets🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -1.04%E -0.494%K -0.939%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -7.60%E -4.37%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-31 21:40
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.51%E -0.720%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -9.20%E -5.38%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 14:26
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 16:10
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -2.92%E -1.41%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -2.83%E -1.54%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-01 14:40
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 13:30
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 14:13
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 21:55
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 21:35
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 21:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 16:50
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 20:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 20:10
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 17:39
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 21:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.07%E -4.04%K -9.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 21:59
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.86%E -1.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.60%E -4.37%K -10.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 20:10
ReBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.33%E -2.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-01 14:40
DraftKings🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -4.79%E -2.36%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 05:55
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-01 13:35
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-01 13:34
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.36%E -1.84%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-01 21:59
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 14:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 14:43
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 14:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.26%E -2.61%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.07%E -4.04%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.11%EV -5.73%E -2.85%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.89%EV -4.95%E -2.77%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 21:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 14:40
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 14:40
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 13:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 13:26
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 13:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 14:40
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 13:35
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 13:20
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 13:35
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 13:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.42%E -2.45%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 13:45
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 21:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 21:50
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 21:55
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.60%E -4.37%K -10.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-01 19:30
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.14%E -4.70%K -11.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-01 19:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.20%E -3.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.14%E -4.70%K -11.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-01 20:10
Betsson🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.21%EV -6.67%E -3.35%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.79%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 14:40
NordicBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.21%EV -6.67%E -3.35%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.79%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 14:39
BetAnything🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -7.14%E -3.61%K -7.28%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 16:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.14%E -3.61%K -7.28%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.01%E -3.40%K -7.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 20:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-09-01 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-09-01 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-09-01 21:50
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-09-01 21:50
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-09-01 21:40
ProphetX◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-09-01 21:55
Novig◎2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%2.4%2026-09-01 21:55
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%2.6%2026-09-01 21:55