Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Peyton Stearns
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 91.24%1.10fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -4.00%
Kelly -83.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.90%91.29%91.18%93.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.0598.04%96.58%96.15%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Peyton Stearns (Visit)
Prediction 8.76%11.42fair odd
EV +40.16%
Edge +2.51%
Kelly +2.68%
Growth +1.08%
assuming max odds 16.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.05%8.71%8.82%11.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.2511.2010.5016.0012.12%8.93%9.52%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 91.24%; Peyton Stearns (Visit): 8.76%. For Peyton Stearns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.42. 21 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +40.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +40.16%E +2.51%K +2.68%G +1.08% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +31.40%E +2.09%K +2.24%G +0.704% | 3.8% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -6.94%E -6.80%K -346.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +31.40%E +2.09%K +2.24%G +0.704% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.18%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 14.20I 7.04%NM 6.82%EV +24.39%E +1.72%K +1.85%G +0.451% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.82%EV -4.20%E -4.00%K -83.96%G +0.000% | 13.58I 7.36%NM 7.18%EV +18.96%E +1.40%K +1.51%G +0.286% | 2.6% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.85%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV +18.26%E +1.35%K +1.46%G +0.267% | 3.6% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -4.20%E -4.00%K -83.96%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +13.88%E +1.07%K +1.16%G +0.161% | 2.9% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +13.88%E +1.07%K +1.16%G +0.161% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +13.88%E +1.07%K +1.16%G +0.161% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +13.88%E +1.07%K +1.16%G +0.161% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.61%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 12.90I 7.75%NM 7.39%EV +13.00%E +1.01%K +1.09%G +0.142% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 13:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +9.50%E +0.760%K +0.826%G +0.078% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.17%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 12.12I 8.25%NM 7.83%EV +6.17%E +0.509%K +0.555%G +0.034% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.17%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 12.12I 8.25%NM 7.83%EV +6.17%E +0.509%K +0.555%G +0.034% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 13:18 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +5.12%E +0.427%K +0.465%G +0.024% | 4.5% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.94%E -6.80%K -346.76%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +5.12%E +0.427%K +0.465%G +0.024% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.94%E -6.80%K -346.76%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +5.12%E +0.427%K +0.465%G +0.024% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.94%E -6.80%K -346.76%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +5.12%E +0.427%K +0.465%G +0.024% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.04%EV -6.94%E -6.80%K -346.76%G +0.000% | 11.80I 8.47%NM 7.96%EV +3.37%E +0.285%K +0.312%G +0.011% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +0.740%E +0.064%K +0.070%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 13:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV +0.740%E +0.064%K +0.070%G +0.001% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 13:07 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.20%E -4.00%K -83.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.64%E -0.331%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.64%E -0.331%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 13:17 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.64%E -0.331%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.64%E -0.331%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.64%E -0.331%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -6.94%E -6.80%K -346.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 13:17 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -6.94%E -6.80%K -346.76%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -8.02%E -0.764%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 13:17 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -10.21%E -0.996%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 13:16 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.20%E -4.00%K -83.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.40%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.20%E -4.00%K -83.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.40%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 13:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.20%E -4.00%K -83.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.40%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.40%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.40%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.40%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -12.40%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -14.59%E -1.50%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -14.59%E -1.50%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -21.16%E -2.35%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -21.16%E -2.35%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 13:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -5.11%E -4.91%K -127.76%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -25.54%E -3.00%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.90%EV -6.02%E -5.85%K -200.76%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.10%EV -27.73%E -3.36%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-23 13:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 93.34% | 14.99I 6.67%NM 6.66% | 0.1% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.60% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.40% | 0.8% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.13% | 12.05I 8.30%NM 7.87% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 13:20 |