Language:English
Naomi Osaka v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Naomi Osaka (Local)
Prediction 26.63%3.76fair odd
EV +0.930%
Edge +0.245%
Kelly +0.333%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.45%26.77%26.65%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.543.583.7930.77%28.27%27.97%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 73.37%1.36fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -7.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.27%73.23%73.35%74.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.291.291.3380.00%77.37%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Naomi Osaka (Local): 26.63%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 73.37%. For Naomi Osaka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.930%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.69%EV +0.930%E +0.245%K +0.333%G +0.003% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.31%EV -3.89%E -2.97%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -0.135%E -0.036%K -0.049%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -3.89%E -2.97%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -0.135%E -0.036%K -0.049%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 17:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -1.47%E -0.396%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.85%EV -3.89%E -2.97%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.91%EV -2.53%E -0.692%K -0.952%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.09%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.80%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -3.60%E -0.994%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.88%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.82%E -5.37%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.82%E -5.37%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.82%E -5.37%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.55%E -6.00%K -29.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.29%E -6.63%K -33.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.65%EV -6.82%E -5.37%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 17:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-11 17:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -3.15%E -2.39%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -3.15%E -2.39%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -8.12%E -2.35%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -3.15%E -2.39%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -8.12%E -2.35%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -9.46%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -2.42%E -1.82%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -9.46%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -3.89%E -2.97%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.46%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.42%E -1.82%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.42%E -1.82%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.42%E -1.82%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.42%E -1.82%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.62%E -3.55%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.09%E -4.76%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -13.45%E -4.14%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.35%E -4.15%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 17:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 17:40 |
| Novig◎ | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.98% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.02% | 1.6% | 2026-05-11 17:44 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71% | 2.8% | 2026-05-11 17:45 |