Language:English
McCartney Kessler v Lucia Bronzetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
McCartney Kessler (Local)
Prediction 62.39%1.60fair odd
EV -0.806%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.84%62.49%62.19%64.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.521.531.5968.97%65.74%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lucia Bronzetti (Visit)
Prediction 37.61%2.66fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.577%
Kelly +0.916%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 2.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.71%37.51%37.81%39.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.512.502.7041.67%39.80%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: McCartney Kessler (Local): 62.39%; Lucia Bronzetti (Visit): 37.61%. For Lucia Bronzetti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV +1.56%E +0.577%K +0.916%G +0.014% | 3.7% | 2026-05-05 08:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.66%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.34%EV +0.805%E +0.300%K +0.479%G +0.004% | 2.7% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.30%E -2.13%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.20%E -0.848%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.20%E -0.848%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-05 11:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -7.04%E -4.73%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.52%EV -2.58%E -0.996%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -5.80%E -3.84%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -2.96%E -1.15%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 12:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.29%EV -3.30%E -2.13%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.71%EV -3.71%E -1.45%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-05 11:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.08%E -1.60%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-05 08:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.08%E -1.60%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.17%E -3.40%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.08%E -1.60%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.80%E -3.84%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.08%E -1.60%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.08%E -1.60%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -9.54%E -6.58%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -4.08%E -1.60%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-05 11:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 11:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 22:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 01:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.17%E -3.40%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-05 11:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.17%E -3.40%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.17%E -3.40%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-05 11:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.80%E -3.84%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.80%E -3.84%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-05 11:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-05 07:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.67%E -5.18%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.67%E -5.18%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-05 11:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.29%E -5.64%K -17.64%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.94%EV -4.55%E -2.97%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.06%EV -6.34%E -2.55%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -5.80%E -3.84%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -6.72%E -2.71%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 19:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%EV -0.806%E -0.507%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -7.09%E -2.87%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-05 10:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.84%EV -0.806%E -0.507%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -7.09%E -2.87%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-05 10:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -3.30%E -2.13%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -7.47%E -3.04%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 12:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.85%E -3.20%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 18:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.85%E -3.20%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 18:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.85%E -3.20%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-05 12:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.42%E -4.28%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.73%E -4.05%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-05 11:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.87% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13% | 1.0% | 2026-05-05 12:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17% | 2.4% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43% | 5.6% | 2026-05-05 12:25 |