Language:English
Jessica Pegula v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jessica Pegula (Local)
Prediction 23.47%4.26fair odd
EV +26.74%
Edge +4.95%
Kelly +6.08%
Growth +1.62%
assuming max odds 5.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.81%24.10%23.37%32.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.773.805.4035.09%26.56%26.32%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 76.53%1.31fair odd
EV +9.44%
Edge +6.60%
Kelly +21.95%
Growth +2.07%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.36%75.90%76.63%82.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.271.241.4388.50%78.78%80.65%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jessica Pegula (Local): 23.47%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 76.53%. For Jessica Pegula (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +26.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.13%EV -29.12%E -9.64%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.87%EV +9.44%E +6.60%K +21.95%G +2.07% | 3.0% | 2026-05-13 10:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV -31.23%E -10.66%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV +8.67%E +6.11%K +20.65%G +1.79% | 4.6% | 2026-05-13 11:11 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV -31.23%E -10.66%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV +8.67%E +6.11%K +20.65%G +1.79% | 4.6% | 2026-05-13 11:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -29.59%E -9.86%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV +7.14%E +5.10%K +17.86%G +1.28% | 4.8% | 2026-05-13 11:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -29.59%E -9.86%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV +7.14%E +5.10%K +17.86%G +1.28% | 4.8% | 2026-05-13 11:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -31.94%E -11.01%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV +7.14%E +5.10%K +17.86%G +1.28% | 5.9% | 2026-05-13 11:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.89%EV -23.49%E -7.21%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.11%EV +6.38%E +4.59%K +16.35%G +1.04% | 2.6% | 2026-05-13 11:11 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -29.59%E -9.86%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV +6.38%E +4.59%K +16.35%G +1.04% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 10:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -27.24%E -8.79%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV +5.61%E +4.07%K +14.77%G +0.829% | 4.7% | 2026-05-13 11:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -28.42%E -9.32%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV +5.61%E +4.07%K +14.77%G +0.829% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 10:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -33.11%E -11.62%K -17.90%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV +5.61%E +4.07%K +14.77%G +0.829% | 7.6% | 2026-05-13 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -33.11%E -11.62%K -17.90%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV +5.61%E +4.07%K +14.77%G +0.829% | 7.6% | 2026-05-13 11:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -27.24%E -8.79%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV +4.85%E +3.54%K +13.10%G +0.635% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 11:06 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -29.59%E -9.86%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV +4.85%E +3.54%K +13.10%G +0.635% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 11:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -26.77%E -8.58%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV +4.08%E +3.00%K +11.34%G +0.463% | 5.6% | 2026-05-13 10:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -27.24%E -8.79%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV +4.08%E +3.00%K +11.34%G +0.463% | 5.8% | 2026-05-13 11:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.41%EV -30.29%E -10.20%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.59%EV +4.08%E +3.00%K +11.34%G +0.463% | 7.2% | 2026-05-13 11:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -31.94%E -11.01%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV +4.08%E +3.00%K +11.34%G +0.463% | 8.0% | 2026-05-13 10:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.07%EV -23.25%E -7.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.93%EV +2.55%E +1.90%K +7.50%G +0.191% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 11:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -17.86%E -5.10%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -0.511%E -0.393%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -13.16%E -3.56%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -1.28%E -0.989%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -14.34%E -3.93%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -1.28%E -0.989%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -20.20%E -5.94%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -1.28%E -0.989%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-13 11:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -8.47%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.57%E -2.83%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.34%E -3.47%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.34%E -3.47%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.34%E -3.47%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.34%E -3.47%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 11:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.99%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.34%E -3.47%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.99%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.34%E -3.47%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.10%E -4.11%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.10%E -4.11%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.10%E -4.11%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.63%E -5.44%K -30.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.63%E -5.44%K -30.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.63%E -5.44%K -30.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.63%E -5.44%K -30.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.63%E -5.44%K -30.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.99%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.63%E -5.44%K -30.15%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -13.16%E -3.56%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -6.63%E -5.44%K -30.15%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +5.61%E +1.25%K +1.60%G +0.090% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -7.40%E -6.11%K -35.23%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +5.61%E +1.25%K +1.60%G +0.090% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -7.40%E -6.11%K -35.23%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +3.27%E +0.742%K +0.961%G +0.031% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -7.40%E -6.11%K -35.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +3.27%E +0.742%K +0.961%G +0.031% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -7.40%E -6.11%K -35.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +3.27%E +0.742%K +0.961%G +0.031% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -7.40%E -6.11%K -35.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +3.27%E +0.742%K +0.961%G +0.031% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -7.40%E -6.11%K -35.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -0.254%E -0.060%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -7.40%E -6.11%K -35.23%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -0.254%E -0.060%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -7.40%E -6.11%K -35.23%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +3.27%E +0.742%K +0.961%G +0.031% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.16%E -6.80%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV +2.09%E +0.481%K +0.625%G +0.013% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -8.16%E -6.80%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.43%E -0.340%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.16%E -6.80%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.43%E -0.340%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.16%E -6.80%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.16%E -6.80%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.51%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -8.16%E -6.80%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -1.43%E -0.340%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -8.93%E -7.50%K -46.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -8.93%E -7.50%K -46.99%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +11.48%E +2.42%K +3.06%G +0.352% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -9.69%E -8.22%K -53.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -9.69%E -8.22%K -53.86%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +26.74%E +4.95%K +6.08%G +1.62% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -10.46%E -8.94%K -61.53%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV +17.35%E +3.47%K +4.34%G +0.752% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -11.99%E -10.43%K -79.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV +9.13%E +1.96%K +2.50%G +0.229% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -11.99%E -10.43%K -79.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV +3.27%E +0.742%K +0.961%G +0.031% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.57%EV -13.52%E -11.97%K -104.01%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36% | 0.5% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-05-13 11:16 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 1.3% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92% | 3.2% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |
| Novig◎ | 4.31I 23.20%NM 21.64% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.36% | 7.2% | 2026-05-13 11:15 |