Language:English
Francesca Jones v Kayla Day
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francesca Jones (Local)
Prediction 48.56%2.06fair odd
EV +18.49%
Edge +7.58%
Kelly +12.84%
Growth +2.37%
assuming max odds 2.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%47.93%50.00%54.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.702.011.922.4458.82%49.64%52.08%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kayla Day (Visit)
Prediction 51.44%1.94fair odd
EV +5.45%
Edge +2.66%
Kelly +5.19%
Growth +0.283%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.48%52.07%50.00%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.791.852.0563.29%55.94%54.05%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francesca Jones (Local): 48.56%; Kayla Day (Visit): 51.44%. For Francesca Jones (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. 21 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV +18.49%E +7.58%K +12.84%G +2.37% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -17.18%E -10.67%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +16.54%E +6.89%K +11.82%G +1.95% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +16.54%E +6.89%K +11.82%G +1.95% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 21:18 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV +14.12%E +6.01%K +10.46%G +1.48% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -18.72%E -11.85%K -32.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV +13.63%E +5.82%K +10.17%G +1.39% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -17.70%E -11.06%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV +13.14%E +5.64%K +9.88%G +1.30% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -17.70%E -11.06%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 21:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV +12.66%E +5.46%K +9.59%G +1.21% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -17.18%E -10.67%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +11.69%E +5.08%K +8.99%G +1.05% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +11.69%E +5.08%K +8.99%G +1.05% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -17.70%E -11.06%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 20:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV +11.69%E +5.08%K +8.99%G +1.05% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -18.21%E -11.45%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 21:12 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV +11.20%E +4.89%K +8.68%G +0.973% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -16.15%E -9.91%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV +10.72%E +4.70%K +8.37%G +0.897% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -16.15%E -9.91%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 20:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV +9.26%E +4.12%K +7.41%G +0.686% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -17.18%E -10.67%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 21:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -15.12%E -9.17%K -23.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 21:06 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -15.12%E -9.17%K -23.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 21:07 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV +4.40%E +2.05%K +3.83%G +0.169% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 21:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +1.98%E +0.941%K +1.80%G +0.035% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -8.95%E -5.06%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +1.98%E +0.941%K +1.80%G +0.035% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -14.09%E -8.44%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -2.88%E -1.44%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -12.04%E -7.04%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-05 21:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -6.28%E -3.25%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.35%E -2.91%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.75%E -0.916%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -2.26%E -1.19%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -3.81%E -2.04%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 21:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.86%E -3.20%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.86%E -3.20%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.74%E -4.07%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.26%E -1.19%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.22%E -4.35%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.22%E -4.35%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.22%E -4.35%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.71%E -4.63%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.71%E -4.63%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.19%E -4.92%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.81%E -2.04%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.19%E -4.92%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.81%E -2.04%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -9.19%E -4.92%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -5.86%E -3.20%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -9.19%E -4.92%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -9.68%E -5.20%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -4.32%E -2.32%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +0.309%E +0.158%K +0.325%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.59%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -6.38%E -3.50%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -11.14%E -6.09%K -13.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -1.75%E -0.916%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 21:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.68%EV -12.11%E -6.69%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.32%EV -4.32%E -2.32%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -13.56%E -7.62%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV +5.45%E +2.66%K +5.19%G +0.283% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -15.99%E -9.24%K -21.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV +5.45%E +2.66%K +5.19%G +0.283% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -16.96%E -9.92%K -23.89%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV +5.45%E +2.66%K +5.19%G +0.283% | 7.3% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%EV -17.45%E -10.26%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%EV -0.206%E -0.106%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 0.5% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 0.5% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 0.7% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.96% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04% | 1.7% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 21:20 |