L’École des cotes

Francesca Jones v Kayla Day

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-05 22:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (23 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Francesca Jones (Local)

Prévision 48.56%2.06cote équitable
EV +18.49%
Avantage +7.58%
Kelly +12.84%
Croissance +2.37%

avec la cote maximale 2.44

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.75%47.93%50.00%54.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.702.011.922.4458.82%49.64%52.08%40.98%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Kayla Day (Visiteur)

Prévision 51.44%1.94cote équitable
EV +5.45%
Avantage +2.66%
Kelly +5.19%
Croissance +0.283%

avec la cote maximale 2.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
45.48%52.07%50.00%60.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.581.791.852.0563.29%55.94%54.05%48.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV +18.49%E +7.58%K +12.84%G +2.37%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -17.18%E -10.67%K -28.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-05 21:10
LowVig.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +16.54%E +6.89%K +11.82%G +1.95%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-05 21:10
BetOnline.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +16.54%E +6.89%K +11.82%G +1.95%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-05 21:18
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV +14.12%E +6.01%K +10.46%G +1.48%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -18.72%E -11.85%K -32.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-05 21:10
Bet Right2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV +13.63%E +5.82%K +10.17%G +1.39%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -17.70%E -11.06%K -29.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-05 21:10
Marathon Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV +13.14%E +5.64%K +9.88%G +1.30%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -17.70%E -11.06%K -29.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 21:04
BetRivers2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV +12.66%E +5.46%K +9.59%G +1.21%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -17.18%E -10.67%K -28.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-05 21:10
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +11.69%E +5.08%K +8.99%G +1.05%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-05 21:10
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +11.69%E +5.08%K +8.99%G +1.05%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -17.70%E -11.06%K -29.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-05 20:59
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV +11.69%E +5.08%K +8.99%G +1.05%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -18.21%E -11.45%K -30.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-05 21:12
GTbets2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV +11.20%E +4.89%K +8.68%G +0.973%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -16.15%E -9.91%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 21:10
1xBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV +10.72%E +4.70%K +8.37%G +0.897%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -16.15%E -9.91%K -25.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-05 20:59
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV +9.26%E +4.12%K +7.41%G +0.686%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -17.18%E -10.67%K -28.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-05 21:15
Codere (IT)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -15.12%E -9.17%K -23.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 21:06
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -15.12%E -9.17%K -23.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 21:07
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 21:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 21:10
NetBet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +6.83%E +3.11%K +5.69%G +0.389%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 21:10
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV +4.40%E +2.05%K +3.83%G +0.169%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -16.67%E -10.29%K -26.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-05 21:10
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +1.98%E +0.941%K +1.80%G +0.035%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -8.95%E -5.06%K -11.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 21:20
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +1.98%E +0.941%K +1.80%G +0.035%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -14.09%E -8.44%K -21.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 21:20
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -2.88%E -1.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -12.04%E -7.04%K -16.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-05 21:18
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
TAB1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
DraftKings1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -6.28%E -3.25%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.35%E -2.91%K -6.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-05 21:20
Casumo1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
Unibet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
Unibet (NL)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
Unibet (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
ATG (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
Svenska Spel1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
betPARX1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.52%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.29%E -1.75%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.75%E -0.916%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 21:20
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -2.26%E -1.19%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 21:20
Hard Rock Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -3.81%E -2.04%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-05 21:19
Caesars1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.86%E -3.20%K -7.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 21:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.86%E -3.20%K -7.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 21:20
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.25%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-05 21:20
Betway1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.74%E -4.07%K -8.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.26%E -1.19%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
Virgin Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.22%E -4.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 21:20
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.22%E -4.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 21:20
LiveScore Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.22%E -4.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 21:20
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.71%E -4.63%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 21:20
Bally Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.71%E -4.63%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 21:20
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.19%E -4.92%K -10.57%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.81%E -2.04%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 21:20
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.19%E -4.92%K -10.57%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.81%E -2.04%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 21:20
LeoVegas1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -9.19%E -4.92%K -10.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -5.86%E -3.20%K -7.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 21:20
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -9.19%E -4.92%K -10.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-05 21:20
Winamax (DE)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -9.68%E -5.20%K -11.25%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -4.32%E -2.32%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 21:20
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +0.309%E +0.158%K +0.325%G +0.001%5.3%2026-03-05 21:20
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 21:20
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 21:20
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.84%E -2.61%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.59%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -6.38%E -3.50%K -7.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-05 21:20
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -11.14%E -6.09%K -13.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -1.75%E -0.916%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 21:19
Betclic (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 50.68%EV -12.11%E -6.69%K -14.95%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.32%EV -4.32%E -2.32%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-05 21:20
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -13.56%E -7.62%K -17.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV +5.45%E +2.66%K +5.19%G +0.283%5.0%2026-03-05 21:20
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -15.99%E -9.24%K -21.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV +5.45%E +2.66%K +5.19%G +0.283%6.6%2026-03-05 21:20
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -16.96%E -9.92%K -23.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV +5.45%E +2.66%K +5.19%G +0.283%7.3%2026-03-05 21:20
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%EV -17.45%E -10.26%K -24.93%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%EV -0.206%E -0.106%K -0.219%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-05 21:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-03-05 21:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-03-05 21:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%0.7%2026-03-05 21:20
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%0.8%2026-03-05 21:20
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 45.96%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04%1.7%2026-03-05 21:20
Novig2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%6.0%2026-03-05 21:20