Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Ekaterina Alexandrova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 78.11%1.28fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -9.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.23%77.95%77.92%79.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.211.201.2584.75%82.67%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit)
Prediction 21.89%4.57fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.389%
Kelly +0.495%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 4.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.38%22.05%22.08%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.334.304.6527.78%23.11%23.26%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 78.11%; Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit): 21.89%. For Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.57. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -7.05%E -5.93%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV +1.81%E +0.389%K +0.495%G +0.009% | 5.5% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.712%E +0.155%K +0.198%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -7.83%E -6.64%K -43.53%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 20.63%EV -0.601%E -0.132%K -0.170%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -3.93%E -3.19%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV -1.48%E -0.328%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.48%E -0.328%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.48%E -0.328%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.48%E -0.328%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.48%E -0.328%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.15%EV -2.37%E -1.89%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 4.47I 22.37%NM 21.85%EV -2.13%E -0.477%K -0.615%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.70%EV -5.49%E -4.54%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 4.47I 22.37%NM 21.30%EV -2.13%E -0.477%K -0.615%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.67%E -0.833%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.49%E -4.54%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -3.67%E -0.833%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.67%E -0.833%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.67%E -0.833%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.83%E -6.64%K -43.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.67%E -0.833%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -4.76%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 15:28 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -3.93%E -3.19%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV -4.98%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -5.20%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.20%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.49%E -4.54%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.15%E -2.54%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.15%E -2.54%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.49%E -4.54%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -7.05%E -5.93%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -7.05%E -5.93%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -6.95%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -7.05%E -5.93%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -7.05%E -5.93%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.83%E -6.64%K -43.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.83%E -6.64%K -43.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.14%EV -3.93%E -3.19%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -9.14%E -2.20%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -9.14%E -2.20%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -9.14%E -2.20%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.37%E -1.89%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.15%E -2.54%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.15%E -2.54%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-17 15:22 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.71%E -3.86%K -21.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.27%E -5.23%K -31.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -2.37%E -1.89%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -13.52%E -3.42%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -2.37%E -1.89%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -21.18%E -5.88%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-17 15:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-06-17 15:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.5% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.58% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.42% | 2.6% | 2026-06-17 15:30 |