Language:English
Katerina Siniakova v Madison Keys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Katerina Siniakova (Local)
Prediction 24.18%4.14fair odd
EV +2.74%
Edge +0.646%
Kelly +0.845%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.30%24.30%24.12%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.874.2528.57%25.75%25.84%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Madison Keys (Visit)
Prediction 75.82%1.32fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -4.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%75.70%75.88%77.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.3083.33%79.97%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Katerina Siniakova (Local): 24.18%; Madison Keys (Visit): 75.82%. For Katerina Siniakova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +2.74%E +0.646%K +0.845%G +0.023% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.23I 23.64%NM 23.09%EV +2.26%E +0.535%K +0.700%G +0.016% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.91%EV -3.70%E -2.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-18 14:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV +0.327%E +0.079%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-18 14:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -0.882%E -0.215%K -0.284%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-18 10:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.60%EV -1.37%E -0.335%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.40%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.60%EV -1.37%E -0.335%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.40%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -3.06%E -0.762%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-18 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 13:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 13:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 14:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 13:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 11:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 13:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 13:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-18 11:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-18 11:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-18 14:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -3.30%E -0.825%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -9.01%E -7.51%K -45.05%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-18 14:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.90%EV -3.78%E -0.950%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.10%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.09%EV -4.02%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.91%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -4.51%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -4.51%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -5.23%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-18 13:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.72%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.72%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 13:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.72%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-18 13:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.72%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-18 13:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.56%EV -6.44%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.44%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 14:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.70%E -2.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 11:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -10.55%E -2.85%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-18 08:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.94%E -2.30%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-18 13:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 13:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 13:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 14:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-18 08:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-18 08:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -6.74%E -5.48%K -29.28%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-18 15:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -15.39%E -4.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.43%E -1.10%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-17 10:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 0.2% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Novig◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 1.1% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78% | 2.5% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |