Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Talia Gibson
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 84.53%1.18fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -12.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.17%84.50%84.27%86.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.121.1692.59%89.11%89.29%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Talia Gibson (Visit)
Prediction 15.47%6.47fair odd
EV +8.26%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.114%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%15.50%15.73%18.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.076.007.0020.00%16.47%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 84.53%; Talia Gibson (Visit): 15.47%. For Talia Gibson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.47. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV +8.26%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114% | 3.6% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +8.26%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +8.26%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +8.26%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV +6.72%E +0.973%K +1.14%G +0.076% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +4.40%E +0.651%K +0.765%G +0.034% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.38%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.62%EV +1.15%E +0.176%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 18:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.08%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV +0.530%E +0.082%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.530%E +0.082%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 19:03 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.530%E +0.082%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.06%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.94%G +0.000% | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.94%EV +0.375%E +0.058%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 18:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.28%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.72%EV +0.375%E +0.058%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -1.02%E -0.159%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-15 19:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -1.02%E -0.159%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-15 19:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -1.02%E -0.159%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -1.02%E -0.159%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.97%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.33I 15.80%NM 15.03%EV -2.10%E -0.332%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -3.34%E -0.534%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.11%E -0.663%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 07:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -5.66%E -0.927%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 06:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.96%EV -8.70%E -8.06%K -108.79%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.04%EV -5.66%E -0.927%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -6.43%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-15 10:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 12:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 11:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -11.07%E -1.93%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 10:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -11.07%E -1.93%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -11.07%E -1.93%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 10:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -11.07%E -1.93%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -11.84%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -11.84%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -11.84%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 07:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.94%E -2.72%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.94%E -2.72%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.94%E -2.72%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -18.80%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 19:03 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -2.79%E -2.42%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -19.58%E -3.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -2.79%E -2.42%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -19.58%E -3.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 10:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -1.94%E -1.67%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -22.67%E -4.53%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 15:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 0.5% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.49% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.51% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.7% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.34% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.66% | 2.5% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |