Idioma:Español
Aryna Sabalenka v Talia Gibson
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Predicción 84.53%1.18momio equitativo
EV -1.94%
Ventaja -1.67%
Kelly -12.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.16
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
81.17%84.50%84.27%86.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.081.121.121.1692.59%89.11%89.29%86.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Talia Gibson (Visitante)
Predicción 15.47%6.47momio equitativo
EV +8.26%
Ventaja +1.18%
Kelly +1.38%
Crecimiento +0.114%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.58%15.50%15.73%18.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.006.076.007.0020.00%16.47%16.67%14.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 84.53%; Talia Gibson (Visitante): 15.47%. Para Talia Gibson (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.47. 12 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.26%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV +8.26%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114% | 3.6% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +8.26%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +8.26%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +8.26%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV +6.72%E +0.973%K +1.14%G +0.076% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +4.40%E +0.651%K +0.765%G +0.034% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.38%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.62%EV +1.15%E +0.176%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 18:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.08%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV +0.530%E +0.082%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.530%E +0.082%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 19:03 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.530%E +0.082%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.06%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.94%G +0.000% | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.94%EV +0.375%E +0.058%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 18:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.28%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.72%EV +0.375%E +0.058%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -1.02%E -0.159%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-15 19:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -1.02%E -0.159%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-15 19:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -1.02%E -0.159%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -1.02%E -0.159%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.97%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.33I 15.80%NM 15.03%EV -2.10%E -0.332%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -3.34%E -0.534%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.11%E -0.663%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 07:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -5.66%E -0.927%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 06:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.96%EV -8.70%E -8.06%K -108.79%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.04%EV -5.66%E -0.927%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -6.43%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-15 10:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 12:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 11:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -7.20%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.44%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -11.07%E -1.93%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 10:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -11.07%E -1.93%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -11.07%E -1.93%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 10:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.07%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -11.07%E -1.93%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -11.84%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -11.84%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -7.01%E -6.38%K -70.13%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -11.84%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 07:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.94%E -2.72%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.94%E -2.72%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.94%E -2.72%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -18.80%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 19:03 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -2.79%E -2.42%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -19.58%E -3.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -2.79%E -2.42%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -19.58%E -3.76%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 10:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -1.94%E -1.67%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -22.67%E -4.53%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 15:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 0.5% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.49% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.51% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.7% | 2026-08-16 18:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.34% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.66% | 2.5% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |