Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jessica Pegula v Magdalena Frech

2026-08-05 16:30 UTC — WTA Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jessica Pegula (Local)

Predicción 84.76%1.18momio equitativo
EV -4.22%
Ventaja -3.73%
Kelly -32.45%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.13

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
82.67%84.81%84.70%86.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.081.121.121.1392.59%89.64%89.29%88.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Magdalena Frech (Visitante)

Predicción 15.24%6.56momio equitativo
EV +6.67%
Ventaja +0.952%
Kelly +1.11%
Crecimiento +0.074%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.58%15.19%15.30%17.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.206.166.257.0019.23%16.24%16.00%14.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jessica Pegula (Local): 84.76%; Magdalena Frech (Visitante): 15.24%. Para Magdalena Frech (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.56. 7 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 7.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.67%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet1.13I 88.50%NM 86.10%EV -4.22%E -3.73%K -32.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90%EV +6.67%E +0.952%K +1.11%G +0.074%2.8%2026-08-04 14:50
FanDuel1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +6.67%E +0.952%K +1.11%G +0.074%4.4%2026-08-04 08:30
Paddy Power1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.76%E -6.15%K -67.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.67%E +0.952%K +1.11%G +0.074%5.2%2026-08-04 08:30
Sky Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.76%E -6.15%K -67.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.67%E +0.952%K +1.11%G +0.074%5.2%2026-08-04 08:29
BoyleSports1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.76%E -6.15%K -67.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.67%E +0.952%K +1.11%G +0.074%5.2%2026-08-04 15:04
DraftKings1.11I 90.09%NM 85.84%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%6.73I 14.86%NM 14.16%EV +2.55%E +0.379%K +0.445%G +0.011%4.9%2026-08-04 20:10
GTbets1.13I 88.50%NM 85.46%EV -4.22%E -3.73%K -32.45%G +0.000%6.64I 15.06%NM 14.54%EV +1.18%E +0.178%K +0.209%G +0.002%3.6%2026-08-04 07:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -0.952%E -0.146%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 20:44
Tipico (DE)1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -8.46%E -7.83%K -105.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -0.952%E -0.146%K -0.173%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 01:25
1xBet1.13I 88.50%NM 85.09%EV -4.22%E -3.73%K -32.45%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.91%EV -1.71%E -0.266%K -0.315%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 21:45
Fanatics1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -2.48%E -0.387%K -0.459%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 14:50
theScore Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.76%E -6.15%K -67.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -2.48%E -0.387%K -0.459%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-03 23:45
Marathon Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -4.00%E -0.635%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 21:40
Winamax (DE)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:13
Bovada1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 21:44
Unibet (NL)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Unibet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:10
Casumo1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:10
betPARX1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:15
TABtouch1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:10
Unibet (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:10
Grosvenor1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:10
LiveScore Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Virgin Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:15
BetRivers1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:10
ATG (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Svenska Spel1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:10
Bally Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Hard Rock Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Betr (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -4.76%E -0.762%K -0.907%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-03 23:45
PointsBet (AU)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -5.52%E -0.891%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 17:44
Fliff1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -5.52%E -0.891%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 18:15
Betsson1.11I 90.09%NM 84.58%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%6.09I 16.42%NM 15.42%EV -7.20%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 20:14
NordicBet1.11I 90.09%NM 84.58%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%6.09I 16.42%NM 15.42%EV -7.20%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 20:15
Unibet (UK)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 22:15
betfred_uk1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 17:45
Betclic (FR)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 20:18
William Hill1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 18:15
888sport1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 14:45
Dabble (AU)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 20:15
PlayUp1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 20:15
Betway1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 09:09
Mr Green (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 14:45
888sport (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 15:00
Coral1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 15:00
BetMGM1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 15:00
BetAnything1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 00:05
Caesars1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 13:49
TAB1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 21:48
SportsBet1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.76%E -6.15%K -67.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -8.57%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 19:05
PMU (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -6.76%E -6.15%K -67.62%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -11.62%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-04 18:15
LeoVegas1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -6.76%E -6.15%K -67.62%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -13.14%E -2.31%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-04 22:15
Unibet (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -14.67%E -2.62%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-04 22:14
ReBet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -5.91%E -5.33%K -53.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -14.67%E -2.62%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-04 20:15
Bet Victor1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -16.19%E -2.94%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-04 00:25
betano_uk1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.07%E -4.52%K -42.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -16.19%E -2.94%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-04 07:00
Neds1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -4.22%E -3.73%K -32.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -17.71%E -3.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 15:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -4.22%E -3.73%K -32.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -17.71%E -3.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 15:00
Winamax (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 82.67%EV -7.61%E -6.98%K -84.55%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -20.76%E -3.99%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-04 20:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-08-04 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-08-04 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-08-04 20:20
Matchbook1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%1.6%2026-08-04 22:10
Smarkets1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%4.6%2026-08-04 23:10
Novig1.12I 89.29%NM 85.20%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%4.8%2026-08-05 00:10