Language:English
Naomi Osaka v Magdalena Frech
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Naomi Osaka (Local)
Prediction 73.92%1.35fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -10.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.74%74.11%73.80%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.281.291.3181.30%78.29%77.52%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Magdalena Frech (Visit)
Prediction 26.08%3.83fair odd
EV +4.31%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.44%
Growth +0.062%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%25.89%26.20%28.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.613.604.0030.30%27.72%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Naomi Osaka (Local): 73.92%; Magdalena Frech (Visit): 26.08%. For Magdalena Frech (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.31%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +4.31%E +1.08%K +1.44%G +0.062% | 5.0% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.43%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.57%EV +3.26%E +0.824%K +1.10%G +0.036% | 2.8% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -5.38%E -4.20%K -19.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +1.70%E +0.436%K +0.586%G +0.010% | 3.8% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.86%E -5.44%K -26.37%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +1.70%E +0.436%K +0.586%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-06-21 14:58 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.90%EV -6.12%E -4.82%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%EV -1.17%E -0.309%K -0.419%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.12%E -4.82%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.21%E -0.590%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.21%E -0.590%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-21 14:58 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.21%E -0.590%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-21 14:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.21%E -0.590%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-21 14:58 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.21%E -0.590%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-21 14:57 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.52%E -0.950%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:58 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.82%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-21 14:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.90%E -3.00%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.90%E -3.00%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-21 14:08 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-21 14:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-21 14:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-21 14:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.12%E -4.82%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-21 14:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -9.07%E -7.38%K -39.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -7.43%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-21 14:58 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -5.38%E -4.20%K -19.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.43%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-21 14:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -5.38%E -4.20%K -19.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.43%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -5.38%E -4.20%K -19.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.43%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.43%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -3.16%E -2.41%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -7.95%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-21 14:56 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.90%E -3.00%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-21 14:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-21 14:56 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.38%E -4.20%K -19.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.12%E -4.82%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.12%E -4.82%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.12%E -4.82%K -22.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-21 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-21 14:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.60%E -6.08%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.73%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.38%E -4.20%K -19.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -10.04%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.38%E -4.20%K -19.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -10.04%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.90%E -3.00%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.34%E -3.34%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-21 14:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.64%E -3.60%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -11.34%E -3.34%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-21 14:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -3.90%E -3.00%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -13.95%E -4.23%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-21 14:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-06-21 14:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36% | 1.9% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.12% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.88% | 2.6% | 2026-06-21 15:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71% | 3.8% | 2026-06-21 14:59 |