A Escola das Odds

Taylor Fritz v Lorenzo Sonego

Início: 2026-07-04 16:45 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Taylor Fritz (Local)

Previsão 85.09%1.18odd justa
EV -2.99%
Vantagem -2.63%
Kelly -21.38%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.14

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
81.43%85.04%85.07%87.06%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.081.111.111.1492.59%90.17%90.09%87.72%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Lorenzo Sonego (Visitante)

Previsão 14.91%6.71odd justa
EV +10.31%
Vantagem +1.39%
Kelly +1.61%
Crescimento +0.166%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.94%14.96%14.93%18.57%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
5.006.366.257.4020.00%15.71%16.00%13.51%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
FanDuel1.10I 90.91%NM 87.06%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.94%EV +10.31%E +1.39%K +1.61%G +0.166%4.4%2026-07-04 16:25
Pinnacle1.12I 89.29%NM 86.55%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%7.21I 13.87%NM 13.45%EV +7.47%E +1.04%K +1.20%G +0.090%3.2%2026-07-04 16:40
SportsBet1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +4.34%E +0.620%K +0.724%G +0.031%5.2%2026-07-04 16:25
Paddy Power1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +4.34%E +0.620%K +0.724%G +0.031%5.2%2026-07-04 16:25
Sky Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +4.34%E +0.620%K +0.724%G +0.031%5.2%2026-07-04 16:25
BoyleSports1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +4.34%E +0.620%K +0.724%G +0.031%5.2%2026-07-04 16:39
BetUS1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +4.34%E +0.620%K +0.724%G +0.031%5.2%2026-07-04 16:25
888sport1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +4.34%E +0.620%K +0.724%G +0.031%6.9%2026-07-04 16:40
888sport (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +4.34%E +0.620%K +0.724%G +0.031%6.9%2026-07-04 16:40
Mr Green (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +4.34%E +0.620%K +0.724%G +0.031%6.9%2026-07-04 16:40
Codere (IT)1.12I 89.29%NM 85.86%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.14%EV +1.36%E +0.200%K +0.235%G +0.003%4.0%2026-07-04 16:25
ReBet1.12I 89.29%NM 85.86%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.14%EV +1.36%E +0.200%K +0.235%G +0.003%4.0%2026-07-04 16:25
Winamax (DE)1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +0.616%E +0.091%K +0.107%G +0.001%4.1%2026-07-04 16:35
NetBet (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -7.25%E -6.65%K -80.53%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV +0.616%E +0.091%K +0.107%G +0.001%6.6%2026-07-04 16:25
Fanatics1.12I 89.29%NM 85.49%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.51%EV -1.62%E -0.245%K -0.289%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-04 16:40
1xBet1.12I 89.29%NM 85.38%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.62%EV -2.51%E -0.384%K -0.454%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 16:37
Unibet (UK)1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 16:35
Coolbet1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 16:40
MyBookie.ag1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 16:40
Bovada1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 16:38
William Hill1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 16:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 16:25
Coral1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 16:25
betfred_uk1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-04 16:24
Tipico (DE)1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-04 16:25
Everygame1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-04 16:25
TAB1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -7.25%E -6.65%K -80.53%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-04 16:39
BetAnything1.11I 90.09%NM 85.32%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.68%EV -3.86%E -0.598%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-04 16:25
Marathon Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -4.60%E -0.719%K -0.852%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:30
DraftKings1.13I 88.50%NM 84.75%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.57%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.25%EV -6.39%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-04 16:35
BetRivers1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 16:25
PlayUp1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 16:25
Neds1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 16:25
Betr (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 16:25
Winamax (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 16:35
PointsBet (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 16:25
Betsson1.11I 90.09%NM 84.65%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.35%EV -8.77%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 16:35
NordicBet1.11I 90.09%NM 84.65%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.35%EV -8.77%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 16:35
Unibet (NL)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:40
Casumo1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:40
Unibet (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:40
Unibet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:40
betPARX1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:40
ATG (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:40
Svenska Spel1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:40
Grosvenor1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 16:40
LiveScore Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 16:25
Virgin Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 16:40
TABtouch1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 16:40
Bally Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -9.07%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 16:39
Betway1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 16:35
theScore Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 16:35
Hard Rock Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 16:39
Dabble (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 16:40
BetMGM1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 16:40
PMU (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -7.25%E -6.65%K -80.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-04 16:40
Fliff1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -7.25%E -6.65%K -80.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-04 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-04 16:40
LeoVegas1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -12.05%E -2.04%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-04 16:40
Betclic (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -14.29%E -2.49%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-04 16:38
Bet Victor1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -18.02%E -3.28%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-04 16:40
Caesars1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -25.47%E -5.09%K -6.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-04 16:39
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-07-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-07-04 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-07-04 16:40
Matchbook1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-07-04 16:40
ProphetX1.14I 87.72%NM 86.81%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.19%1.1%2026-07-04 16:40
Smarkets1.12I 89.29%NM 86.85%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.15%2.8%2026-07-04 16:40
Novig1.13I 88.50%NM 85.93%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.07%3.0%2026-07-04 16:40