Language:English
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Novak Djokovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local)
Prediction 20.21%4.95fair odd
EV +41.48%
Edge +5.93%
Kelly +6.91%
Growth +2.87%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%20.12%20.34%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.554.457.0026.67%21.99%22.47%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Novak Djokovic (Visit)
Prediction 79.79%1.25fair odd
EV -0.265%
Edge -0.212%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.00%79.88%79.66%86.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.191.201.2590.91%83.83%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local): 20.21%; Novak Djokovic (Visit): 79.79%. For Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.95. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +41.48%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +41.48%E +5.93%K +6.91%G +2.87% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -12.23%E -11.12%K -122.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +11.16%E +2.03%K +2.48%G +0.277% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -8.24%E -7.17%K -54.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +5.10%E +0.981%K +1.21%G +0.062% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -8.24%E -7.17%K -54.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.18I 19.31%NM 18.43%EV +4.70%E +0.907%K +1.12%G +0.053% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.57%EV -6.65%E -5.68%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 18:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.92%EV +3.08%E +0.604%K +0.751%G +0.023% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.08%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +3.08%E +0.604%K +0.751%G +0.023% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.65%E -5.68%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV +1.06%E +0.212%K +0.265%G +0.003% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV +1.06%E +0.212%K +0.265%G +0.003% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.06%E +0.212%K +0.265%G +0.003% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.65%E -5.68%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +1.06%E +0.212%K +0.265%G +0.003% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.45%E -6.42%K -46.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.92I 20.33%NM 19.87%EV -0.558%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.13%EV -2.66%E -2.18%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.92I 20.33%NM 18.95%EV -0.558%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.05%EV -8.24%E -7.17%K -54.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV -2.98%E -0.622%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -2.98%E -0.622%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -2.98%E -0.622%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -7.45%E -6.42%K -46.54%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 18:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -3.99%E -0.841%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.85%E -4.96%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.27%EV -4.60%E -0.975%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.73%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-01 18:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -7.03%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 18:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -7.03%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -7.03%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -7.03%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 18:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -8.04%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 18:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -8.04%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-01 18:47 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -9.05%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -2.66%E -2.18%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 18:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.05%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-01 18:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -9.05%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 18:48 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.05%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.85%E -4.96%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.05%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.85%E -4.96%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.05%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.85%E -4.96%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.48I 22.32%NM 20.99%EV -9.45%E -2.11%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.01%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.48I 22.32%NM 20.99%EV -9.45%E -2.11%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.01%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -10.06%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -11.07%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 18:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -11.07%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 18:48 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -11.07%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 18:48 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -11.07%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-01 18:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -11.07%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.85%E -4.96%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -12.08%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -6.65%E -5.68%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.48%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.48%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 18:48 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.48%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.48%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.48%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -13.09%E -3.04%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -13.09%E -3.04%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -13.09%E -3.04%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -13.09%E -3.04%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -13.09%E -3.04%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -13.09%E -3.04%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -13.09%E -3.04%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -1.86%E -1.51%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -3.46%E -2.86%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -14.10%E -3.32%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -5.05%E -4.25%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -15.11%E -3.60%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -5.85%E -4.96%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -16.12%E -3.88%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -1.06%E -0.857%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -16.12%E -3.88%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -4.25%E -3.55%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -17.13%E -4.18%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -6.65%E -5.68%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -19.15%E -4.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -2.66%E -2.18%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -19.15%E -4.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -2.66%E -2.18%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -24.21%E -6.45%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -0.265%E -0.212%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36% | 0.5% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36% | 0.5% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36% | 0.5% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 1.1% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.69% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.31% | 1.3% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Novig◎ | 4.65I 21.51%NM 21.19% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.81% | 1.5% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 2.2% | 2026-07-01 18:50 |