Language:English
Marin Cilic v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marin Cilic (Local)
Prediction 28.92%3.46fair odd
EV +2.38%
Edge +0.672%
Kelly +0.936%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 3.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.86%28.94%28.95%31.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.323.303.5432.79%30.11%30.30%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 71.08%1.41fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -7.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.00%71.06%71.05%73.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.321.331.3777.52%75.50%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marin Cilic (Local): 28.92%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 71.08%. For Marin Cilic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.38%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.86%EV +2.38%E +0.672%K +0.936%G +0.022% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.14%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV +1.22%E +0.349%K +0.488%G +0.006% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -4.75%E -3.55%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +1.22%E +0.349%K +0.488%G +0.006% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -6.17%E -4.68%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.22%E +0.349%K +0.488%G +0.006% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.22%E +0.349%K +0.488%G +0.006% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.75%E -3.55%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.225%E -0.065%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.67%E -0.491%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 14:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -3.12%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -2.62%E -1.91%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.12%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.04%E -2.99%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.12%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.04%E -2.99%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.12%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.04%E -2.99%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.12%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.17%E -4.68%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -3.12%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -3.12%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -3.12%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -7.60%E -5.84%K -25.32%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-29 14:46 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.75%E -3.55%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.75%E -3.55%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.17%E -4.68%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.17%E -4.68%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.79%EV -4.85%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.21%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.33%E -2.45%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.33%E -2.45%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 14:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -6.89%E -5.26%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-29 14:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.95%EV -6.30%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.05%EV -6.17%E -4.68%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.95%EV -6.30%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.05%EV -6.17%E -4.68%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.33%E -2.45%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.04%E -2.99%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.04%E -2.99%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.04%E -2.99%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.75%E -3.55%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 14:46 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -8.90%E -2.83%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.04%E -2.99%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.35%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-29 14:41 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.35%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.46%E -4.11%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -11.79%E -3.87%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -2.62%E -1.91%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 1.2% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 1.2% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 1.2% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.45% | 2.2% | 2026-06-29 14:51 |
| Novig◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03% | 3.6% | 2026-06-29 14:50 |