Language:English
Mariano Navone v Flavio Cobolli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mariano Navone (Local)
Prediction 23.65%4.23fair odd
EV +0.765%
Edge +0.180%
Kelly +0.235%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.26%23.76%23.66%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.953.984.2628.57%25.34%25.16%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Flavio Cobolli (Visit)
Prediction 76.35%1.31fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -5.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.22%76.24%76.34%77.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2981.97%80.10%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariano Navone (Local): 23.65%; Flavio Cobolli (Visit): 76.35%. For Mariano Navone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.765%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.26%EV +0.765%E +0.180%K +0.235%G +0.002% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.74%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +0.528%E +0.124%K +0.163%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -0.654%E -0.156%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-30 12:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -0.654%E -0.156%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-30 15:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.654%E -0.156%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.48%EV -2.07%E -0.501%K -0.660%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.52%EV -3.04%E -2.39%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-30 17:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-30 12:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-30 12:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-30 17:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-27 10:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.53%EV -4.68%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.47%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-28 07:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -5.15%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.04%E -2.39%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-30 17:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-30 16:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 11:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-28 01:08 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 12:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 13:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-29 06:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-30 17:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-30 12:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -6.57%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-30 15:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.57%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-30 12:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -7.28%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 06:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -7.28%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-30 15:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -7.28%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-30 15:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 17:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-27 12:06 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-30 17:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-28 12:27 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-30 17:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.51%E -1.17%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 11:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 11:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-27 11:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-27 11:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -13.66%E -3.74%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -2.28%E -1.78%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.85%E -4.12%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-30 17:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -17.21%E -4.92%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -2.28%E -1.78%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73% | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73% | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73% | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36% | 0.5% | 2026-06-30 17:29 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.69% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.31% | 1.3% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.77% | 2.4% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |
| Novig◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68% | 3.0% | 2026-06-30 17:30 |