A Escola das Odds

Mariano Navone v Flavio Cobolli

Início: 2026-06-30 17:35 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Mariano Navone (Local)

Previsão 23.65%4.23odd justa
EV +0.765%
Vantagem +0.180%
Kelly +0.235%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.26

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.26%23.76%23.66%26.78%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.503.953.984.2628.57%25.34%25.16%23.47%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Flavio Cobolli (Visitante)

Previsão 76.35%1.31odd justa
EV -1.51%
Vantagem -1.17%
Kelly -5.22%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.29

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
73.22%76.24%76.34%77.74%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.221.251.251.2981.97%80.10%80.00%77.52%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
DraftKings4.26I 23.47%NM 22.26%EV +0.765%E +0.180%K +0.235%G +0.002%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.74%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 17:30
Betway4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +0.528%E +0.124%K +0.163%G +0.001%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-30 17:30
Winamax (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -0.654%E -0.156%K -0.204%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-30 12:20
Coolbet4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -0.654%E -0.156%K -0.204%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-30 15:20
Everygame4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.654%E -0.156%K -0.204%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 17:30
Pinnacle4.14I 24.15%NM 23.48%EV -2.07%E -0.501%K -0.660%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.52%EV -3.04%E -2.39%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-30 17:20
Unibet (UK)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-30 12:20
Codere (IT)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-30 12:19
ReBet4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-30 12:59
FanDuel4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 12:19
Betclic (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-30 17:29
SportsBet4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-30 12:19
Tipico (DE)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.02%E -0.737%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-27 10:59
GTbets4.03I 24.81%NM 23.53%EV -4.68%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.47%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-28 07:49
1xBet4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -5.15%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-30 17:30
Hard Rock Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.04%E -2.39%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-30 17:10
BetAnything4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-30 16:50
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 12:19
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 12:19
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 12:19
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-27 11:00
MyBookie.ag4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 12:19
Bovada4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-28 01:08
BetUS4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
Unibet (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 12:50
Fanatics4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 13:00
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-30 12:19
Winamax (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-30 12:19
PointsBet (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-30 17:30
Paddy Power4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 06:40
betfred_uk4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-30 17:29
Sky Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.39%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.86%E -5.62%K -31.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-30 12:20
Betr (AU)3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -6.57%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-30 15:19
NetBet (FR)3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.57%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-30 12:19
Marathon Bet3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -7.28%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 06:29
NordicBet3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -7.28%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 15:10
Betsson3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -7.28%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97%EV -5.33%E -4.30%K -22.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 15:10
Unibet3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
Casumo3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
BetRivers3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
Unibet (NL)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
TABtouch3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:10
Unibet (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
Grosvenor3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
LeoVegas3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
Svenska Spel3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
betPARX3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:09
ATG (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:10
Bally Bet3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 17:10
BetMGM3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-27 12:06
TAB3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-30 17:20
Caesars3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-28 12:27
LiveScore Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-30 17:09
Virgin Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -10.12%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-30 17:10
BoyleSports3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.51%E -1.17%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 11:30
Neds3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -3.80%E -3.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 11:29
Ladbrokes (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-27 11:29
Coral3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-27 11:29
PMU (FR)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -11.30%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.09%E -4.95%K -26.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-30 17:09
PlayUp3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -13.66%E -3.74%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -2.28%E -1.78%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-30 17:30
Bet Victor3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.85%E -4.12%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.57%E -3.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 17:09
Dabble (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -17.21%E -4.92%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -2.28%E -1.78%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 17:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73%0.0%2026-06-30 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73%0.0%2026-06-30 17:30
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73%0.0%2026-06-30 17:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36%0.5%2026-06-30 17:29
ProphetX4.55I 21.98%NM 21.69%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.31%1.3%2026-06-30 17:30
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.77%2.4%2026-06-30 17:30
Novig4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%3.0%2026-06-30 17:30